Bob Michele

Avoid 2-year Treasuries due to hawkish Fed.

Bob Michele states that in the current environment of uncertainty and lack of hedges, "There is one [safe haven]. It's Treasury bills, Treasury bills, but not duration." In a market where traditional safe havens (gold, long-duration bonds) are failing and equities are selling off, the short-term, liquid, and high-yielding nature of T-bills provides a capital-preserving haven. He advocates "just let the markets go to wherever they're going" and highlights T-bills as the singular working hedge. LONG T-bills as a defensive, low-risk parking spot during a period of high macroeconomic uncertainty and technical market washouts. A sudden, sharp resolution to the crisis leading to a violent "risk-on" rally, making T-bills an opportunity-cost laggard.

"The bond market is sitting here with a growing stack of chips... We are the perfectly priced market... Even if inflation runs at about 3% this year, you are talking about positive yields." As equity markets face "AI anxiety" and tariff confusion, capital is rotating. With yields >4% and credit spreads behaving (assuming no recession), bonds offer a "counterbalance to risk" that is mathematically attractive compared to expensive equities. LONG Inflation re-accelerating significantly, forcing the Fed to hike or hold rates higher for longer.