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Asymmetrical Bets

★ 5.0
Substack author, Asymmetrical Bets
16 ideas · 13 tickers · tracked since Mar 2026
Pick return distribution n = —
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
<−30%
−30/−10
−10/0
0/+20
+20/+50
+50/+100
>+100%
Bottom 10%
Median
Top 10%
Total picks
16
16 L / 0 S
Win-rate
Avg return
L S
Best
avg evaluated
Worst
avg evaluated
Long / short
16 / 0
100.0% long bias
Per thesis Per mention Result
Ticker
Side
Conv.
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Date
×N
Src
LONG
MED
NatSec
$33.41
The author sees AVEX as deeply undervalued due to its superior production capacity, combat-proven products, and rapid revenue growth, with multiple catalysts (analyst coverage, earnings, international
Apr 20
×1
MU
LONG
HIGH
AI/Semi
$406.13
Micron is the largest HBM supplier and supply shortages may persist to 2030; added on the post-earnings pullback.
Mar 23
×1
LONG
HIGH
AI/Semi
$690.56
SanDisk co-developed the new HBF storage tier with SK Hynix, carving out a role in the AI memory stack between HBM and SSDs, and the memory supercycle is accelerating due to inference demand.
Mar 23
×1
LONG
HIGH
Photonics
$93.84
Applied Optoelectronics has no Nvidia deal but management's revenue trajectory and capacity projections create a wide asymmetric gap in the photonics stack.
Mar 23
×2
LONG
HIGH
Photonics
$256.77
Coherent is the confirmed Spectrum-X CPO supplier with sole-source liquid crystal optical switches and a Nvidia supply agreement through 2030.
Mar 23
×2
LONG
HIGH
Photonics
$720.00
Lumentum controls ~50% of the 200G EML laser market, is sold out through 2027, and has a $2B supply commitment from Nvidia.
Mar 23
×2
LONG
HIGH
AI/Semi
$60.66
Soitec is the sole-source supplier of Photonics-SOI substrates to every major silicon photonics foundry; revenue per connection quadruples in the CPO transition.
Mar 23
×1
LONG
HIGH
Photonics
$245.90
World's first 6-inch InP production lines give 4-5x capacity boost; can supply both silicon photonic engine and CW laser for NVIDIA's CPO; already secured an 'exceptionally large' CPO purchase order;
Mar 13
×2
LONG
HIGH
Photonics
$102.90
Vertically integrated InP laser and transceiver maker; fastest-growing company in photonics at the lowest valuation relative to growth (7.5x FY2026 revenue); FY2026 revenue guided above $1B, doubling
Mar 13
×2
LONG
HIGH
Photonics
$626.00
50% market share in high-speed EMLs (most supply-constrained laser); OCS backlog >$400M with revenue inflection in 2026; revenue growing >85% YoY; valuation at 22.8x EV/Revenue requires perfect execut
Mar 13
×2
LONG
HIGH
Photonics
$341.60
Pure play on coherent optical networking for data center interconnect; benefits from multi-cluster AI buildout; more direct optical leverage than peers at a reasonable valuation.
Mar 13
×1
SOI
LONG
HIGH
Energy
$57.56
Global leader in Photonics-SOI substrates; near-monopoly position as silicon photonics grows from 38% to 84% of AI optical units by 2030; legacy RF-SOI exposure creates a discount, making it an asymme
Mar 13
×1
IQE
LONG
HIGH
Other
$23.82
Picks-and-shovels play on InP bottleneck; independent epitaxy supplier for the laser wafers; micro-cap with execution risk but highest leverage to the exact supply constraint; production in UK/US avoi
Mar 13
×1
LONG
HIGH
NatSec
$7.75
Kraken is a dominant subsea defense supplier with a monopoly on critical mine-countermeasure technology, benefiting from the Iran crisis, Covelya acquisition, and an upcoming NASDAQ uplisting.
Mar 11
×1
LONG
HIGH
Macro
$100.45
To protect downside amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty and potential Fed paralysis, the author is shifting 20% of assets into short-term Treasuries (SGOV) as a safe haven and to maintain optiona
Mar 08
×1
Showing 15 of 16 picks
Direction16 picks
100.0% LONG BIAS
Long16
Short0
Best & Worst calls30d
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