amelie 5.0 2 ideas

We increased our exposure to equities (especially US) because the market was not positioned for a cease-fire, positioning was asymmetric, and any improvement would lead to a rally. For the rally to continue, we need confirmation from the earnings season and progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A cease-fire in the coming days or weeks remains the most likely scenario.

We are constructive on European duration. The bar for the Fed to hike rates is very high, and the Fed will likely remain on hold in a wait-and-see mode, which is supportive for bonds.