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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
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Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
1 eval.
+2.5%
L +2.5%
S -
Win rate
100%
30 days
1 eval.
+7.2%
L +7.2%
S -
Win rate
100%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Consumer
$75.50
-
13F filings reveal Berkshire Hathaway built a new stake in The New York Times (NYT) while simultaneously cutting its Amazon (AMZN) position by 75%. Berkshire’s move into NYT suggests a value play on legacy media durability or cash flow, while the massive reduction in AMZN signals a belief that the capital is better deployed elsewhere (likely cash/T-bills given their $380B cash pile) or that AMZN is fully valued relative to growth prospects. Follow the "Smart Money" rotation: Long NYT, Trim/Short AMZN. These are lagging indicators (Q4 data); Berkshire may have already exited or adjusted further.
Feb 18
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Ticker posts
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