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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
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Median
-
Top 10%
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Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
11 eval.
-3.2%
L -3.2%
S -
Win rate
0%
30 days
11 eval.
-0.9%
L -0.9%
S -
Win rate
36%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Other
$181.25
-
"We've been the biggest investors in the world in digital infrastructure data centers... that foundation needs to be put in place first... building data centers in Europe is very hard." The speaker identifies data centers as the foundational, physical prerequisite for the AI revolution. Scarcity of supply, especially in constrained markets like Europe, increases the value and pricing power of existing, well-located assets owned by major public REITs. As the dominant private investor (BX) faces hurdles building new supply, the value of existing public data center operators (like DLR, EQIX) is underscored. This is a LONG on the sector leaders. Rapid overbuilding could eventually ease supply constraints. Technological shifts could change data center requirements.
Mar 16
Long
Other
$985.00
-
"We've been the biggest investors in the world in digital infrastructure data centers... that foundation needs to be put in place first... building data centers in Europe is very hard." The speaker identifies data centers as the foundational, physical prerequisite for the AI revolution. Scarcity of supply, especially in constrained markets like Europe, increases the value and pricing power of existing, well-located assets owned by major public REITs. As the dominant private investor (BX) faces hurdles building new supply, the value of existing public data center operators (like DLR, EQIX) is underscored. This is a LONG on the sector leaders. Rapid overbuilding could eventually ease supply constraints. Technological shifts could change data center requirements.
Mar 16
Long
Energy
$133.47
-
"We're probably the leading investor in power electricity, giving capital to utilities, electrical equipment. I mean, that foundation needs to be put in place first." AI data centers are massive consumers of power. Gray names power/electrical infrastructure as the *first* necessary layer before AI applications can scale. Investment flowing into utilities and grid infrastructure supports the earnings and capital expenditure profiles of major power companies. LONG on large, regulated utilities and leading clean energy providers that are critical to grid stability and expansion for AI and general electrification. Slow regulatory approval for rate hikes and new projects; potential political pushback on electricity costs; slower-than-expected AI adoption.
Mar 16
Long
Energy
$92.82
-
"We're probably the leading investor in power electricity, giving capital to utilities, electrical equipment. I mean, that foundation needs to be put in place first." The AI-driven surge in demand for data centers creates a parallel, non-negotiable demand for massive amounts of reliable electricity. This necessitates huge capital investment in power generation and grid infrastructure, benefiting large, regulated utilities with scale and access to capital. NextEra Energy (NEE) is a premier, large-cap utility positioned to fund and build the necessary power infrastructure, making it a prime beneficiary of this "foundational" AI theme. This is a LONG. Regulatory delays or denials for rate increases or project approvals. Higher interest rates increase capital costs.
Mar 16
Long
NatSec
$124.29
-
"I'd also say there are some businesses in Europe that I think will do quite well. Defence, obviously is going to grow a lot." The speaker explicitly calls out European defence as a growth sector. This is a direct macro call based on the enduring geopolitical tensions he references earlier. It benefits major European defence contractors (BAESY for BAE Systems) and by extension, their US peers (LMT, NOC) in a globally tense environment. This is a straightforward sector call. Geopolitical instability is driving sustained higher defence spending in Europe and globally. This is a LONG on the defence sector. Political budget fights could delay or reduce planned spending. Peaceful resolution of conflicts could reduce urgency.
Mar 16
Long
NatSec
$643.60
-
"I'd also say there are some businesses in Europe that I think will do quite well. Defence, obviously is going to grow a lot." The speaker explicitly calls out European defence as a growth sector. This is a direct macro call based on the enduring geopolitical tensions he references earlier. It benefits major European defence contractors (BAESY for BAE Systems) and by extension, their US peers (LMT, NOC) in a globally tense environment. This is a straightforward sector call. Geopolitical instability is driving sustained higher defence spending in Europe and globally. This is a LONG on the defence sector. Political budget fights could delay or reduce planned spending. Peaceful resolution of conflicts could reduce urgency.
Mar 16
Long
NatSec
$735.96
-
"I'd also say there are some businesses in Europe that I think will do quite well. Defence, obviously is going to grow a lot." The speaker explicitly calls out European defence as a growth sector. This is a direct macro call based on the enduring geopolitical tensions he references earlier. It benefits major European defence contractors (BAESY for BAE Systems) and by extension, their US peers (LMT, NOC) in a globally tense environment. This is a straightforward sector call. Geopolitical instability is driving sustained higher defence spending in Europe and globally. This is a LONG on the defence sector. Political budget fights could delay or reduce planned spending. Peaceful resolution of conflicts could reduce urgency.
Mar 16
Long
Fintech
$110.92
-
Blackstone shares dropped on news of record 7.9% redemption requests in their BCRED fund. However, Gray confirms the firm is meeting 100% of these requests and that portfolio fundamentals are strong (10% EBITDA growth, improving cash flow coverage). The market is pricing in a "liquidity crisis" or a "run on the fund." By stepping in with corporate cash and employee capital to clear the redemption queue, management is explicitly signaling that the assets are undervalued and the liquidity fears are unfounded. When a best-in-class manager buys their own dip during a panic, it usually marks a sentiment bottom. LONG. The sell-off is driven by sentiment/headlines ("spin cycle"), while the underlying cash flows remain robust. If redemption requests accelerate in subsequent quarters despite this move, it could force asset sales at fire-sale prices, damaging the NAV.
Mar 03
Long
Fintech
$18.95
-
Gray describes a "disjointed environment" where headlines suggest a crisis in private credit, yet his data shows borrowers are healthy (low leverage, high growth). He asserts private credit continues to offer a "50% premium versus leverage loans." Publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) like Ares (ARCC) and Blue Owl (OBDC) often trade in sympathy with Blackstone's private funds. If the market perceives a systemic rot in private credit, these stocks sell off. Gray's data suggests the "rot" is nonexistent and the fear is misplaced. This creates a buying opportunity in top-tier BDCs which offer high yields and liquid exposure to the same thesis Gray is defending. LONG. Buying the "baby" that the market is throwing out with the "bathwater" of private credit fear. A genuine recession would spike default rates across the sector, validating the market's fears regardless of current coverage ratios.
Mar 03
Long
Fintech
$11.50
-
Gray describes a "disjointed environment" where headlines suggest a crisis in private credit, yet his data shows borrowers are healthy (low leverage, high growth). He asserts private credit continues to offer a "50% premium versus leverage loans." Publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) like Ares (ARCC) and Blue Owl (OBDC) often trade in sympathy with Blackstone's private funds. If the market perceives a systemic rot in private credit, these stocks sell off. Gray's data suggests the "rot" is nonexistent and the fear is misplaced. This creates a buying opportunity in top-tier BDCs which offer high yields and liquid exposure to the same thesis Gray is defending. LONG. Buying the "baby" that the market is throwing out with the "bathwater" of private credit fear. A genuine recession would spike default rates across the sector, validating the market's fears regardless of current coverage ratios.
Mar 03
Long
Fintech
$12.21
-
Gray describes a "disjointed environment" where headlines suggest a crisis in private credit, yet his data shows borrowers are healthy (low leverage, high growth). He asserts private credit continues to offer a "50% premium versus leverage loans." Publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) like Ares (ARCC) and Blue Owl (OBDC) often trade in sympathy with Blackstone's private funds. If the market perceives a systemic rot in private credit, these stocks sell off. Gray's data suggests the "rot" is nonexistent and the fear is misplaced. This creates a buying opportunity in top-tier BDCs which offer high yields and liquid exposure to the same thesis Gray is defending. LONG. Buying the "baby" that the market is throwing out with the "bathwater" of private credit fear. A genuine recession would spike default rates across the sector, validating the market's fears regardless of current coverage ratios.
Mar 03
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