Best trades
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
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Median
-
Top 10%
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Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
11 eval.
-1.4%
L -1.4%
S -
Win rate
36%
30 days
10 eval.
-1.7%
L -1.7%
S -
Win rate
30%
90 days
0 eval.
-
L -
S -
Win rate
-
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Energy
$57.84
-
We are seeing a participation of small caps, cyclicals, industrials... hard assets, things that are real, tangible, based in the real world are performing well. The market is experiencing a dispersion where capital is rotating out of overvalued, screen-based tech into tangible assets and cyclical sectors that benefit from a re-accelerating physical economy and sticky inflation. LONG real assets and cyclical sectors as the market broadens out beyond mega-cap tech. A broader market rollover or deep correction in the S&P 500 would drag down all risk assets, including cyclicals and small caps.
Mar 14
Long
Crypto
$69822.95
-
"The overall macro backdrop... usually leads to a situation where after we see that massive economic reaceleration, there's a big movement of capital into more risk assets... Bitcoin specifically." The convergence of a weakening dollar, stable inflation, and rising ISM (business cycle acceleration) historically triggers a "Risk On" environment. The speaker explicitly links this macro setup to a capital rotation back into Bitcoin, noting that spot buying via ETPs (like BlackRock's IBIT) drives price discovery. LONG. If the "economic re-acceleration" fails to materialize or if the Trump administration's liquidity plans do not offset tightening elsewhere.
Feb 14
Long
Crypto
$38.97
-
"The overall macro backdrop... usually leads to a situation where after we see that massive economic reaceleration, there's a big movement of capital into more risk assets... Bitcoin specifically." The convergence of a weakening dollar, stable inflation, and rising ISM (business cycle acceleration) historically triggers a "Risk On" environment. The speaker explicitly links this macro setup to a capital rotation back into Bitcoin, noting that spot buying via ETPs (like BlackRock's IBIT) drives price discovery. LONG. If the "economic re-acceleration" fails to materialize or if the Trump administration's liquidity plans do not offset tightening elsewhere.
Feb 14
Long
Other
$174.17
-
"The ISM manufacturing PMI is accelerated back above 50, and there are estimates that it could go above 60." The ISM Manufacturing Index is the primary gauge for the industrial economy. A move from 50 to 60 represents a massive boom in manufacturing activity. The logical trade for a manufacturing boom is the Industrial Select Sector (XLI). LONG. ISM data is a "lagging indicator" and could reverse if consumer demand collapses.
Feb 14
Long
Fintech
$56.53
-
"The globally systemically important banks in the United States got the Senate Banking Committee and basically the entire financial regulatory apparatus... aligned with them." If the regulatory game is rigged against regional banks and in favor of the "Too Big To Fail" institutions, the large money center banks (JPM, BAC, Citigroup) will gain market share and assets as smaller competitors are regulated out of existence. LONG. Systemic financial crisis that drags down all banking equities regardless of size.
Feb 07
Long
Fintech
$122.69
-
"The globally systemically important banks in the United States got the Senate Banking Committee and basically the entire financial regulatory apparatus... aligned with them." If the regulatory game is rigged against regional banks and in favor of the "Too Big To Fail" institutions, the large money center banks (JPM, BAC, Citigroup) will gain market share and assets as smaller competitors are regulated out of existence. LONG. Systemic financial crisis that drags down all banking equities regardless of size.
Feb 07
Long
Fintech
$165.12
-
"Are we going to allow the people that have all the power and control to co-opt crypto... or are we going to invest ideologically... and choose an economic system that values individual sovereignty." The speaker explicitly mentions banks taking out ads against Brian Armstrong (CEO of Coinbase) calling him "Big Crypto." The trade here is the "Ideological Investor" thesis: buying the infrastructure of the new financial system that is under attack by the old guard. Coinbase is the primary equity proxy for this battle. LONG. Regulatory enforcement actions or successful legislative attempts by the banking lobby to cripple crypto on-ramps.
Feb 07
Long
Macro
$265.02
-
"The Russell 2000 is breaking out... this breakout here seems like this break of a large cup and handle and it seems like it's likely to continue much higher." The speaker notes that the "Mag 7 have turned into the Lag 7" and the market is broadening. A breakout in the Russell 2000, supported by strong ISM Manufacturing data (New Orders > 57), signals a rotation into cyclical and mid-cap stocks. The IWM ETF is the direct instrument to capture this rotation. LONG. The breakout could be a "fake out" and get rejected, returning to the previous range.
Feb 07
Long
Crypto
$2087.08
-
"Ethereum tends to follow this chart of the Russell 2000 very tightly... This is also bullish for the rest of the altcoin space if those historical correlations hold." Since the Russell 2000 is confirming a breakout and economic conditions (ISM PMI) are accelerating, the historical correlation dictates that Ethereum (and high-beta alts) will follow this move upward. ETH is the high-beta play on the economic recovery narrative. LONG. Decoupling of the correlation between traditional finance risk assets (Russell) and crypto assets.
Feb 07
Long
Fintech
$322.40
-
"The globally systemically important banks in the United States got the Senate Banking Committee and basically the entire financial regulatory apparatus... aligned with them." If the regulatory game is rigged against regional banks and in favor of the "Too Big To Fail" institutions, the large money center banks (JPM, BAC, Citigroup) will gain market share and assets as smaller competitors are regulated out of existence. LONG. Systemic financial crisis that drags down all banking equities regardless of size.
Feb 07
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