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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
6 eval.
-1.3%
L -1.3%
S -
Win rate
17%
30 days
7 eval.
+2.9%
L +2.9%
S -
Win rate
57%
90 days
1 eval.
-3.4%
L -3.4%
S -
Win rate
0%
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Long
Consumer
$250.68
-
Apple Reliance with Gemini, those are two big user bases, right? A lot of India, a lot of the iOS users... partnerships are a great way to bring two products together and expose something like ChatGPT. Foundational model builders are fighting a capital-intensive war, but they all desperately need distribution to reach the next billion users. Apple owns the most valuable distribution network in the world (iOS) and can extract massive value by integrating these models into its ecosystem, driving a hardware supercycle without bearing the massive foundational training capex. LONG. Apple is perfectly positioned to monetize AI at the edge through hardware upgrades and platform integration fees. Regulatory scrutiny over default search/AI partnerships or delays in rolling out compelling Apple Intelligence features that actually drive consumer hardware upgrades.
Mar 15
Long
AI/Semi
$395.78
-
"Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... we had a $6 billion month out of Anthropic in February... OpenAI ended 2025 at 20 billion annualized run rate." Frontier AI models are generating historic, unprecedented revenue growth by augmenting labor rather than just competing for fixed IT budgets. Because OpenAI and Anthropic are private, the most direct public market beneficiaries are their primary hyperscaler partners and investors, who will capture massive cloud compute and API distribution revenues. LONG the major cloud providers as they are the foundational toll roads capturing the explosive, proven enterprise spend on frontier AI models. A significant portion of current AI spend may be experimental; if enterprises fail to see long-term ROI, test budgets could dry up, leading to a sharp revenue contraction.
Mar 13
Long
AI/Semi
$301.69
-
"Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... we had a $6 billion month out of Anthropic in February... OpenAI ended 2025 at 20 billion annualized run rate." Frontier AI models are generating historic, unprecedented revenue growth by augmenting labor rather than just competing for fixed IT budgets. Because OpenAI and Anthropic are private, the most direct public market beneficiaries are their primary hyperscaler partners and investors, who will capture massive cloud compute and API distribution revenues. LONG the major cloud providers as they are the foundational toll roads capturing the explosive, proven enterprise spend on frontier AI models. A significant portion of current AI spend may be experimental; if enterprises fail to see long-term ROI, test budgets could dry up, leading to a sharp revenue contraction.
Mar 13
Long
Consumer
$207.63
-
"Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... we had a $6 billion month out of Anthropic in February... OpenAI ended 2025 at 20 billion annualized run rate." Frontier AI models are generating historic, unprecedented revenue growth by augmenting labor rather than just competing for fixed IT budgets. Because OpenAI and Anthropic are private, the most direct public market beneficiaries are their primary hyperscaler partners and investors, who will capture massive cloud compute and API distribution revenues. LONG the major cloud providers as they are the foundational toll roads capturing the explosive, proven enterprise spend on frontier AI models. A significant portion of current AI spend may be experimental; if enterprises fail to see long-term ROI, test budgets could dry up, leading to a sharp revenue contraction.
Mar 13
Long
Macro
$593.52
-
"Just a few months ago, the S&P peaked at 24 times. Now we're at 21 times. But I think the market may be getting it a little bit wrong... I think Trump has a very limited set of goals. He wants to destroy and degrade threats... He doesn't want to spread democracy." The broader market has sold off and multiples have compressed due to "post-traumatic stress" fears of a prolonged Middle East quagmire and resulting inflation. If the administration secures a quick exit and avoids a long-term occupation, these macroeconomic fears will subside, allowing equity multiples to expand back to previous highs. LONG the broader market indices to capture the multiple expansion that will occur once the geopolitical overhang and associated inflation fears are resolved. If the conflict drags on, forces boots on the ground, or causes sustained inflation above 3%, multiple compression could worsen.
Mar 13
Long
Macro
$690.62
-
The "Invest America Act" (Trump Accounts) is now law. Every child gets an account seeded with $1,000 in the S&P 500. 1.5 million families claimed accounts in 5 days. This creates a government-mandated, structural "bid" for US equities. It ensures a constant inflow of passive capital into the index for decades, effectively capitalizing the population. Long. Structural tailwinds for the broad US index. Political reversal of the law or broader macro recession.
Feb 07
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