Best trades
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Pick return distribution
Live distribution of all picks with entry price. Right tail = home runs.
< -30%-30/-10-10/00/+20+20/+50+50/+100> +100%
Bottom 10%
-
Median
-
Top 10%
-
Average returns
first-opened thesis horizon: return + win-rate
7 days
3 eval.
-0.5%
L +0.2%
S -2.1%
Win rate
67%
30 days
3 eval.
-3.2%
L -3.6%
S -2.3%
Win rate
0%
90 days
1 eval.
+3.6%
L -
S +3.6%
Win rate
100%
Computed from the first opened position per ticker/side.
180d ready when data exists
Ticker
Side
Theme
Entry
P&L
Thesis
First opened
Mentions
Source
Short
AI/Semi
$6.41
-
Short semiconductor capital equipment suppliers as analog/power recovery utilizes existing capacity rather than driving new wafer-fab capex.
May 04
Long
Macro
$606.68
-
The author is holding a long position from a lower level and expects the market (likely Nasdaq futures, proxied by QQQ) to continue rising to a specific target of 6954 to retest a prior breakdown point.
Feb 20
Long
Macro
$683.60
-
The author provides a specific, conditional long trade plan for S&P 500 futures (ES_F), expecting price to hold the 6867 support level and rally to targets at 6876 and 6884-88, with 6845 acting as a clear invalidation level.
Feb 20
Short
Macro
$680.07
-
1. THE FACT: ES_F lost a 2-day support shelf at 6938, putting bears in control. Two precise backtests of 6938 were followed by a sell-off.
2. THE BRIDGE: The loss of a significant support level (6938) and subsequent rejections on backtests confirm bearish control. This establishes a "sell bounce regime."
3. THE VERDICT: Short ES_F on bounces as long as it remains below 6938.
Jan 02
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