|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Ryan Serhant
Founder and CEO of Serhant Real Estate
|
"I think supply needs to meaningfully increase... It's not a housing crisis. I think that's a solid headline. I think it's a housing stalemate." Serhant identifies that existing homeowners are "locked in" and not selling ("punishes mobility"). Therefore, the *only* source of inventory to break the stalemate and meet demand is new construction. Large builders face less competition from the resale market than ever before. LONG. The "stalemate" in resale is a monopoly for new construction. Interest rates rising further could crush affordability to the point where even new builds cannot sell. |
CNBC
Housing not in crisis but first-time buyers a...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Joseph Lavorgna
Former Chief Economist, National Economic Council
|
"Real goods output is running over 9% annualized rate, which is a real, boom... You mentioned construction. Very good. You mentioned manufacturing up." Lavorgna argues that the economy is undergoing a structural shift led by the "goods sector" rather than services. With goods output growing at 9% and temporary hiring (a leading indicator for manufacturing) turning positive, capital is likely to rotate into industrial and construction stocks which are the direct beneficiaries of this "boom." Long Industrials and Homebuilders to capture the outperformance in the goods-producing economy. If the labor supply constraints mentioned by the host (due to immigration policy) eventually choke off growth, or if the manufacturing data is revised downward like previous jobs reports. |
CNBC
Job market impact from immigration policy 'do...
|