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Feb 17
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AVOID
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Todd Alt
CEO/Founder, Alt Blockchain
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"US Bank debanked all my companies, they debanked and took my wife's Girl Scout cookie away... a random person can decide that you get to pass or not pass." The speaker illustrates a "hostile user experience" within the legacy banking sector. This friction forces capital and high-growth tech companies to build parallel financial systems, eroding the long-term deposit base and relevance of legacy banks for the digital economy. AVOID. The sector faces disruption from the very clients they are excluding. Banks may eventually pivot to embrace crypto rails, recapturing this market share. |
CoinDesk
The Uncensorable Layer 1 Built from Being De-...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Memani
Investment Strategist / CIO
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"It is really going to be more about the sectors of the economy, like banking, for example, where you have substantial tailwinds, you know, deregulation, capital relief." While tech faces valuation compression, banks are trading at low multiples. The combination of a stable economy ("soft landing") and specific policy catalysts (deregulation) creates a setup for multiple expansion in the financial sector. LONG US BANKS as a beneficiary of the rotation into value/fundamentals. Re-acceleration of inflation forcing higher rates, or a recession (hard landing) increasing credit defaults. |
Bloomberg Markets
Memani Says the Soft Landing Is Arriving
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Feb 17
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LONG
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JP Morgan Head of CRE
Head of Commercial Real Estate, JP Morgan
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"As we go through 2026 that normalizes. The banks are back... deal making and commercial real estate is on the rise." Banks have repaired balance sheets and are re-entering the lending market. Higher base rates (high 3s/low 4s) plus spreads (5-6% total) mean banks are lending at very attractive, profitable levels compared to the zero-rate era. Long large commercial lenders. Unexpected spike in delinquencies forcing higher capital reserves. |
CNBC
Property Play: Scenes from a CRE finance conf...
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Feb 16
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LONG
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Chief Investment Strategist
ING Belgium
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Despite regulatory headwinds (credit card fee caps), Wall Street expects "possible deregulation" and "lower interest rate will fuel obviously demand for mortgages." The market is pricing in the regulatory risks but underpricing the twin tailwinds of deregulation (under the Trump administration) and a housing market revival driven by rate cuts. LONG. Deregulation fails to materialize; consumer credit defaults rise. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bonds Rise on Rate-Cut Bets; Gold Dips Below ...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Richard Saperstein
Founding Principal and CIO of Hightower Treasury Partners
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Saperstein admits, "If we really want performance now and we own Oil, Pharma, Bank, we want to diversify Consumer into those sectors for more near-term performance." There is a "passing of the torch" rotation occurring. Capital is moving from Growth to Value/Cyclical. To capture *immediate* alpha while tech consolidates, one must own the sectors benefiting from this rotation. LONG (Tactical). Use these sectors for short-term hedging against tech volatility. The rotation reverses quickly if tech earnings surprise to the upside; economic slowdown hurting cyclicals. |
CNBC
Stock pullback presents opportunities for cli...
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Feb 12
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AVOID
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Peter Navarro
Senior Counsel on Trade and Manufacturing (Trump Adviser)
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"Jamie Diamond, lower your frigging credit card interest rates. You are a criminal the way you charge the American people at 22, 25 and 30%... The president wants you to lower that." This direct, hostile call-out from a key Trump ally signals potential regulatory pressure or executive action aimed at capping consumer credit interest rates. If banks are forced to compress spreads on credit cards, Net Interest Margins (NIM) and profitability will decline. Political headwinds are forming specifically against JPM and the broader credit card issuance sector. The rhetoric may be populist posturing without legislative teeth; banks may lobby effectively to prevent rate caps. |
Bloomberg Markets
Navarro says it's "criminal" how much Jamie D...
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Feb 04
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LONG
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Austin Campbell
Host / Moderator
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"Your bank benefits more than anybody else in the world from stable coins because of your rates, franchise, and repo trading desk." The new administration (Bessent at Treasury) wants to export stablecoins. Stablecoins are backed by bank deposits and reverse repo. Therefore, large US banks (specifically JPM) will see massive deposit inflows and fee generation if they embrace the stablecoin ecosystem rather than fight it. LONG. Banks are the ultimate beneficiaries of stablecoin regulation (Clarity Act). Banks continuing to lobby against stablecoins due to misunderstanding the mechanics; strict capital requirements not being lifted. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Markets Are Down Bad. Are DATs to Blam...
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