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Feb 18
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LONG
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Modupe Adegbembo
Founder, CEO, Kora
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UK CPI is falling (3% headline), but more importantly, youth unemployment is at a 10-year high and Jefferies forecasts UK growth at only 1% (vs market 1.5%). Weak growth and a cracking labor market force the Bank of England to cut rates aggressively (75bps expected by Jefferies in 2026). Lower rates weaken the currency but boost bonds. LONG UK GILTS (betting on yields falling) and SHORT GBP (specifically against AUD or USD). Services inflation remains sticky at 4.4%, which could delay cuts. |
Bloomberg Markets
Lagarde Reported to Leave ECB Before Term End...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs
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UK unemployment has reached its highest level since the pandemic (soft labor market) and inflation is trending down. GS expects 3 rate cuts from the Bank of England this year. The UK economy is showing clearer signs of cooling than the US or Eurozone. This forces the BoE to cut rates more aggressively than the market currently prices. Lower rates = Higher Bond Prices (Gilts) and Weaker Currency (Sterling). LONG UK GILTS / SHORT GBP (specifically vs Euro). UK inflation data surprises to the upside (sticky services inflation). |
Bloomberg Markets
India Seeks Role in AI Future As Modi Hosts F...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Adam
Market Strategist / Guest
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"I think March is basically locked in... I think 50 basis points by year end is relatively reasonable. I think the data today was unambiguously dovish." Dovish wage data confirms inflation is cooling, clearing the path for the BoE to cut rates. Lower rates reduce discount rates for equities and directly boost bond prices (Gilts). LONG UK assets (Bonds/Equities) on confirmed rate cut cycle. Inflation re-accelerates or the BoE remains more hawkish than the market prices. |
Bloomberg Markets
UK Jobs Data Gives Green Light to March BOE C...
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