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Feb 18
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$89.53
$89.53
-0.0%
|
SHORT
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Benzinga
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A key economic indicator, Housing Starts, significantly surpassed expectations, pointing to a robust economy. Strong economic data gives the Federal Reserve more reason to maintain a restrictive monetary policy (i.e., keep interest rates higher for longer) to ensure inflation is under control. This expectation typically causes bond yields to rise. As yields rise, the price of long-duration bond ETFs like TLT falls. This report weakens the case for imminent Fed rate cuts and strengthens the case for higher yields. A short position in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is a trade on this interest rate expectation. Any subsequent data release (e.g., a weak inflation or jobs report) could quickly reverse interest rate expectations, causing yields to fall and TLT to rally. A sudden flight-to-safety event could also drive capital into bonds, invalidating the trade. |
Finnhub - SPY
USA Housing Starts For Dec. 1.404M Vs 1.310M ...
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Feb 18
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$89.53
$89.53
-0.0%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
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— |
Finnhub - TLT
Disinflation Hints At More, Earlier Fed Rate ...
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Feb 17
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$89.87
$89.53
-0.4%
|
LONG
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Austan Goolsbee
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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Goolsbee states, "I still think there are several more rate cuts that can happen in 2026," provided inflation proves transitory. He defines the neutral rate target "loosely... around 3%." Current rates are restrictive relative to a 3% neutral target. If the Fed executes "several" cuts to normalize policy, yields on the curve must fall, pushing bond prices (TLT) higher. LONG. The destination is lower rates, even if the path is bumpy. Inflation remains "stalled out around 3%," forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. |
CNBC
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Several more ...
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Feb 17
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$89.87
$89.53
-0.4%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
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— |
Finnhub - TLT
Weekly Treasury Simulation, February 13, 2026...
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Feb 17
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$89.87
$89.53
-0.4%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Continues To Trad...
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Feb 17
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$89.87
$89.53
-0.4%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
Last Call For A Nice 2nd Pension, TLT Is OK, ...
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Feb 16
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$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
U.S. Inflation Details Offer Room For Deeper ...
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Feb 15
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$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
AVOID
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Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
|
Krugman admits "R-star has moved way up" and the 2019 logic that debt doesn't matter (because r < g) no longer holds. "Interest rates are much, much higher... higher than the sort of long run growth rate of the economy." When interest rates exceed the growth rate, debt dynamics become unsustainable. The fiscal deficit is now a "problem" whereas it wasn't before. This structural shift suggests rates will not return to near-zero levels, creating headwinds for long-duration bonds. AVOID long-duration Treasuries as the era of "free money" is over. A severe recession forces the Fed to cut rates aggressively despite the structural issues. |
Monetary Matters
“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman...
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Feb 14
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$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
LONG
|
Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101
|
"I'm beginning to think that AI is going to be very good for bonds... you're going to have a lot more rate cuts, lower employ un un higher unemployment." The speaker observes that AI (specifically Cloud/Claude) allows him to replace human freelancers ($$$) with a cheap subscription ($). While efficient, this removes income from the economy (the freelancer's wages). Multiplied across the economy (law firms, creative services), this leads to higher unemployment and lower aggregate demand. A slowing economy with rising unemployment forces the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which drives bond prices up. Long Bonds as a hedge against AI-induced economic slowdown. AI creates new industries/jobs faster than it destroys old ones, keeping demand high. |
Joseph Wang
Markets Weekly February 14, 2026
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Feb 13
|
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$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
LONG
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Andrew Ross Sorkin
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
|
CPI came in at 2.4% (vs 2.5% consensus) with shelter inflation (OER) surprisingly low at 0.2%. The 10-year yield fell from 4.10% to 4.07% immediately. The data confirms a "tame CPI," removing the fear of sticky inflation. Lower inflation expectations allow the Fed to keep rates lower or cut, which mechanically pushes bond yields down and bond prices up. LONG Treasuries as the macro data supports the "low yield" narrative championed by Treasury officials. Inflation re-accelerates in future months; data revisions. |
CNBC
Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January...
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Feb 13
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$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
LONG
|
Jim Paulsen
Former Chief Investment Strategist, Paulsen Perspectives
|
Paulsen argues "no jobs is just unacceptable" and notes the average duration of unemployment is nearing half a year. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate (inflation and employment). With employment stalling, the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, which mechanically drives bond yields down and bond prices up. Long duration assets (Treasuries) to capture price appreciation from falling rates. Sticky inflation (Zandi's point) prevents the Fed from cutting rates. |
CNBC
The economy overall is weaker than widely ant...
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|
Feb 13
|
|
$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
NEUTRAL
|
Finnhub News
|
The market update emphasizes the pervasive and transformative disruption caused by AI across all sectors. |
Finnhub - TLT
Market Minute 2-13-26- In Markets, AI is Disr...
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|
Feb 13
|
|
$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
Reassessing Rate Cuts After Strong U.S. Jobs ...
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|
Feb 13
|
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$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
U.S. Housing Inflation: Stubbornly High To St...
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|
Feb 13
|
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$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
Rates Spark: Dutch Pension Funds May Prepare ...
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|
Feb 13
|
|
$89.72
$89.53
-0.2%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
Columbia Threadneedle Fixed Income Monitor: F...
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|
Feb 12
|
|
$89.23
$89.53
+0.3%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
TLT: Staying Bullish On Duration
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|
Feb 12
|
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$89.23
$89.53
+0.3%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
Rates Spark: Domestic Drivers More Important ...
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|
Feb 11
|
|
$88.06
$89.53
+1.7%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
Weighing In On Warsh
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
$88.06
$89.53
+1.7%
|
N/A
|
Finnhub News
|
— |
Finnhub - TLT
Rates Spark: This Time U.S. Rates Can Take Th...
|