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Feb 11
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LONG
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Bill Ford
Chairman, Ford Motor Company
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Software valuations have compressed from 10x revenue to 4x revenue. Thoma Bravo notes that portfolio companies with 97% renewal rates are accelerating, not shrinking, despite AI fears. The market is indiscriminately selling software on the fear that AI replaces it. The smart money (PE) sees AI as a feature that enhances "System of Record" incumbents rather than displacing them. LONG. Valuation reset offers a margin of safety for high-retention B2B SaaS. "Thin" wrapper applications actually being displaced by AI agents. |
Bloomberg Markets
Kraft Heinz Pauses Split, Paramount Sweetens ...
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Feb 09
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AVOID/WATCH
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Steve H.
Quantitative Researcher at Bloomberg / PhD in Financial Econometrics
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Steve argues that Software (SaaS) is facing "Knightian Uncertainty." AI allows companies to "vibe code" their own internal tools, threatening the pricing power and moats of enterprise SaaS models. SaaS valuations were based on high growth and infinite margins. If AI reduces the need for seat-based subscriptions or allows cheaper internal alternatives, the premium valuations (PE ratios) must compress significantly. AVOID. Until the "winners" who successfully integrate AI (like Databricks) are separated from the "losers" (generic reporting software), the sector is a value trap. AI adoption actually accelerates SaaS usage rather than replacing it. |
Thread Guy
WTF is crypto doing!? Are we BACK..? AI takin...
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Jan 31
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SHORT/AVOID
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Jason Calacanis
Host / Angel Investor
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Jason describes his AI agent: "It vibe coded a CRM for itself... it built its own SaaS tools." If AI agents can instantaneously build bespoke software tools and perform SDR (Sales Development Rep) functions, the value proposition of expensive, seat-based B2B SaaS (like Salesforce) collapses. Companies will stop paying $100/seat for software that an agent builds for free. SHORT/AVOID. Structural deflationary pressure on the entire SaaS business model. SaaS companies successfully embedding these agents to retain moats. |
All-In Podcast
ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, ...
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