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Feb 18
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AVOID
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Steven Fulip
Partnership for New York City President and CEO
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NYC Mayor is threatening a property tax hike if a wealth tax isn't passed. Fulip notes this would push NYC corporate taxes to ~22% compared to 11% in neighboring New Jersey. The tax disparity creates a "trip wire" for businesses. Fulip highlights that JPMorgan (JPM) now has more employees in Texas than in NYC, signaling a structural shift of business operations away from the city due to fiscal policy. Avoid NYC-centric real estate and commercial exposure as the tax burden threatens to drive further corporate exodus. The Governor (Hochul) may block the tax proposals, maintaining the status quo. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Baby Formula, A Tax Hike, & The L...
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Feb 18
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SHORT
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Joe Mathieu
Host, Bloomberg Radio
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NYC Mayor is proposing a significant increase in property taxes on "high income earners and businesses" to close a budget gap. Increasing carrying costs for commercial and high-end residential real estate in a city already struggling with occupancy (commercial) and migration (residential) will further depress asset values and net operating income (NOI) for landlords. SHORT. Fiscal desperation leads to policy errors that hurt asset prices. Proposal fails to pass in state legislature; federal bailout/assistance. |
Bloomberg Markets
Partial Shutdown Drags on Over DHS Funding | ...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director)
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"New York's best quarter for office leasing in years... The facts are saying people and companies believe in New York... investing in New York, and aren't afraid." The market has priced NYC Office REITs (like SL Green or Vornado) for a "doom loop" scenario. Rechler provides proprietary data suggesting the bottom is in (leasing up, luxury sales up 30%). If the "death of NYC" narrative is wrong, these assets are severely undervalued. Contrarian Long on NYC-specific real estate exposure. Crime/Quality of life issues (mentioned regarding homeless encampments) could reverse the trend if not managed by the Mayor. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Kalshi CEO on Super Bowl wins & N...
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