|
Feb 17
|
|
—
|
WATCH
|
Danny
Anchor, Bloomberg
|
President Trump is monitoring the "potential threat... to disruption of shipping routes" following Iran's "partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz for military drills." Even temporary closures of the Strait of Hormuz create bottlenecks in global shipping. Uncertainty regarding shipping routes generally leads to higher freight rates and premiums for shipping equities. WATCH. If the "drills" turn into a prolonged blockade, shipping rates will spike. The closure was stated to be only "for a few hours," so the impact may be negligible if normal transit resumes immediately. |
Bloomberg Markets
Iran, US Reach 'Principles' of New Nuclear De...
|
|
Feb 16
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
Joumanna Bercetche
Anchor, Bloomberg
|
The "AI Scare Trade" has expanded from software to physical industries. The US Trucking Index and Logistics sector saw massive price drops, driven by the perception that AI tools will disrupt their business models. The market is currently pricing in "AI displacement" risk. If a sector is viewed as an "AI Victim" (like SaaS last week, Logistics this week), capital flees rapidly regardless of immediate earnings, creating downward momentum. SHORT / AVOID sectors currently in the crosshairs of the "AI Scare" narrative (Logistics, Trucking, Legacy SaaS). The selloff may be an overreaction/panic selling, presenting a value trap if fundamentals remain strong. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI 'Scare Trade' Takes Hold; Talabat FY Earni...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
AVOID
|
Jerry Coghlan
CEO, Pella Capital
|
Coghlan observes a "real dispersion" in credit markets. While the index is fine, there is a "growing tail of companies in software, insurance brokers, asset managers, and media" experiencing significant price declines in their debt. This is the "AI Disruption" trade hitting credit markets. Investors are "re-underwriting cash flows" for the next 20 years, fearing AI will make legacy business models in these sectors obsolete. If bondholders are selling, equity is likely next or already suffering. AVOID debt and equity of legacy firms in these sectors; they are being repriced for existential risk. AI disruption proves slower than anticipated, leading to a relief rally in beaten-down legacy names. |
Bloomberg Markets
US CPI Fuels Fed Wagers, US Inflation Comes I...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
Dani Burger
Anchor, Bloomberg Television
|
Expedia (EXPE) down ~5% despite revenue growth; Pinterest (PINS) issued weak outlook focusing on AI costs; Logistics stocks falling on fears of AI automation (e.g., "Karaoke company turned AI trucker" disrupting freight). The narrative has shifted to "Sell First, Ask Questions Later" for any industry where AI agents could theoretically replace the service. The market is pricing in terminal value risk for software/service intermediaries. SHORT. The "AI Scare Trade" momentum is currently too strong to fight; these stocks are guilty until proven innocent. Oversold bounce; AI disruption takes longer than the market fears. |
Bloomberg Markets
Inflation Data Calms Markets | Bloomberg Open...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
SHORT
|
Annabel Drillers
Asia Tech Correspondent, Bloomberg
|
A small company, Algorithm Holdings, claimed 300-400% efficiency gains using AI, sparking a sell-off in the Russell 3000 trucking index (e.g., Landstar System). Commercial real estate (CBRE) and SaaS stocks are also being sold indiscriminately. The market narrative has shifted from "Who wins from AI?" to "Who is displaced by AI?" Investors are pricing in "zero or negative growth" for sectors where AI agents can replace human headcount (reducing office demand) or seat-based software licenses. SHORT sectors vulnerable to AI deflationary pressure. The sell-off is described as "indiscriminate" and potentially exaggerated, leaving room for a sharp mean-reversion rally if earnings hold up. |
Bloomberg Markets
How AI Is Proving to Be a Double-Edged Sword ...
|