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Feb 18
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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The speaker notes that "4 out of the top 5 AI models by global usage are Chinese," BYD sold 50% more EVs than Tesla, and Chinese consumer apps (TikTok, games) dominate culture. The market consensus is that China merely "steals" IP, but the data shows genuine technical breakthroughs and superior unit economics (Minimax is 20x cheaper than US counterparts). As China dominates both "Atoms" (manufacturing) and "Bits" (AI/Apps), their equity valuations are disconnected from their actual dominance. LONG Chinese tech and manufacturing leaders as they capture global market share in EVs, AI, and culture ("Chinamaxxing"). Geopolitical sanctions; US trade barriers blocking Chinese products. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
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Feb 17
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AVOID
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"Buying Chinese stocks... they're almost impossible to invest in because China does these like state-owned... companies... you get destroyed as an investor." Despite the host's bullishness on China's economic performance (EVs, AI models, consumer tech), the structure of the Chinese market and CCP intervention makes the equities "uninvestable" for Western speculators. Avoid direct exposure despite the "China Maxing" macro thesis. Missing out if China opens markets or sentiment shifts drastically. |
Thread Guy
China is DOMINATING the US in EVERY statistic...
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Feb 17
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AVOID
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Dylan Field
CEO, Figma
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"We do not uh have uh any offerings around Chinese models right now... we need to really be auditing um every model we look at." Enterprise software platforms (like Figma) act as gatekeepers. Due to security, auditability, and trust concerns, Western enterprise platforms will exclude Chinese AI models from their integrations. This limits the commercial reach of Chinese AI in the Western B2B market, regardless of model quality. Avoid Chinese AI plays expecting Western enterprise adoption; the "Trust Moat" favors US/European models (Anthropic, OpenAI, etc.). Chinese models become so superior in performance that companies bypass safety protocols to use them. |
CNBC
Figma CEO Dylan Field on the software reckoni...
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Feb 17
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AVOID
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Dylan Field
CEO, Figma
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When asked if Figma would offer superior Chinese models to users, Field replied, "We do not have any offerings around Chinese models right now... we need to really be auditing every model." Despite performance breakthroughs (Sea Dance 2.0), US software platforms are erecting "Soft Sanctions" by refusing to integrate Chinese models due to security/trust issues. This limits the commercial TAM of Chinese AI tech in the Western enterprise stack. AVOID. Technology leadership does not equal market access in a bifurcated geopolitical environment. If Chinese models become undeniably superior, users may bypass platforms like Figma to use them directly. |
CNBC
Figma CEO Dylan Field On The Software Reckoni...
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Deirdre Bosa
Anchor/Reporter, CNBC Tech Check
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China is "building out the entire ecosystem" from frontier models (Alibaba's Deep Six, ByteDance's video gen) to domestic chips and humanoid robots that are "far more fluid and precise" than previous iterations. The market underestimates China's ability to compete across the *entire* stack. Alibaba is open-sourcing powerful models, and domestic hardware is successfully powering advanced robotics, reducing reliance on US tech. Long Chinese tech leaders (BABA) and the broader sector as they prove resilience and innovation despite sanctions. Increased US export controls or sanctions; regulatory crackdowns within China. |
CNBC
China's Lunar New Year tech showcase
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Feb 13
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WATCH
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Gina Raimondo
Former Commerce Secretary
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She admits, "China is ahead in the diffusion and the number of people and the number of companies using AI." She attributes this to government mandates that force companies to find new jobs for laid-off workers, reducing social friction/fear around adoption. While the US leads in high-end model generation (the "race"), China may lead in practical application and data gathering (the "diffusion") due to lower social resistance. This suggests Chinese AI application layers could monetize faster internally than expected, despite hardware bans. WATCH for signs that diffusion leadership translates to financial performance, though geopolitical risk remains the dominant factor. US sanctions/export controls; Chinese regulatory unpredictability. |
CNBC
Former Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo: Economic ...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Julia Wong
North Asia CIO, Nomura International Wealth Management
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Chinese tech valuations are low. The country is focusing on "Industrial Robotics" and a "whole economy approach" to AI rather than just consumer chatbots. While the U.S. worries about AI monetization in software, China is integrating AI into manufacturing (hard assets). This creates a productivity lift that is currently unpriced in the beaten-down valuations of Chinese tech giants. LONG. A contrarian value play on AI implementation in the industrial sector. Geopolitical sanctions (e.g., U.S. action against DeepSeek) or trade war escalation under the Trump administration. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Angst Rocks Asia Markets | The Asia Trade ...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Christy Tan
Investment Strateg
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Chinese equities are trading at ~12x forward PE versus the S&P 500 at 26x. Retail investors are returning (margin financing at record highs). The valuation gap provides a margin of safety. Tan argues you don't need the whole economy to boom, just a cyclical bottom. Harris notes the government's push for Renminbi internationalization supports the asset class. LONG. A value play within a global portfolio. Geopolitical tensions; continued property sector drag; lack of software earnings growth compared to hardware. |
Bloomberg Markets
Citi Eyes Big India Plans as US Banks Rush to...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Deirdre Bosa
Anchor/Reporter, CNBC Tech Check
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"The race among top AI companies... is only accelerating." Anthropic has only ~4,000 employees but has caused "billions and billions in disruption." Value is shifting from labor-heavy legacy firms to lean, capital-efficient AI model providers. These companies generate massive disruption with a fraction of the overhead. LONG. These are the engines of the disruption, capturing the value lost by the software and services sectors. Regulatory hurdles or rapid commoditization of the models themselves. |
CNBC
AI disruption fears rattle stocks
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Feb 09
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WATCH
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Ali Ghodsi
CEO, Databricks
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Chinese models and open-source alternatives are catching up to US closed models rapidly. Models like "Kimi" and "DeepSeek" are performing nearly as well as top-tier US models but at a fraction of the cost (or free). This creates a "race to the bottom" for pricing power among US model providers. Databricks' largest customers are offloading workloads to cheaper Chinese/open models for cost efficiency. Geopolitical regulation or chip bans could stifle the progress of Chinese models. |
CNBC
Under the hood of the AI economy: Databricks ...
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Feb 09
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WATCH
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Ali Ghodsi
CEO, Databricks
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Chinese models (like Kimi and DeepSeek) and open-source models are creating a price ceiling for US tech. These models are "good enough" (slightly behind US models) but significantly cheaper or free. This forces US hyperscalers to lower prices to compete, preventing them from maintaining massive margins on pure compute/token costs. Large Databricks customers are offloading high-volume tasks to Chinese models to save money. Geopolitical regulations could ban the use of Chinese models by Western enterprises. |
CNBC
Preparing for another tech wipeout: Databrick...
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