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16:00
May 03
Pablo Gil
El PETRÓLEO cambia de ciclo: la variable que puede cambiarlo TODO
SPY BNO 1ST ▾
Pablo Gil
Oil spike historically precedes S&P500 correction.
Historical data shows that sharp oil price rallies have been followed by significant corrections in the S&P 500 (18-27%), and the current oil spike has not yet triggered a correction, presenting a latent downside risk for equities.
SPY WATCH
Pablo Gil
Oil technical breakout possible, watch.
Oil is forming a bullish flag pattern on the chart and is at a critical technical level; a breakout could trigger a strong impulsive move higher, but the outcome depends on geopolitical narratives such as peace talks.
BNO WATCH
MED
16:01
Apr 23
Pablo Gil
La nueva forma de INVERTIR EN VIVIENDA paso a paso
16:00
Apr 19
Pablo Gil
EEUU pide calma, pero el FMI y el Banco Mundial hacen sonar LA ALARMA
GLD 1ST SPY 1ST EWJ 1ST ▾
Pablo Gil
Central banks shift to gold.
Central banks are rapidly shifting reserves from US Treasuries to gold as a safe haven due to loss of confidence in the US dollar and geopolitical uncertainty, supporting further gold price appreciation.
GLD LONG
Pablo Gil
Avoid US equities; seek alternatives.
Despite strong inflows and retail buying, the US stock market shows technical deterioration relative to global equities, with lower highs and lower lows, indicating it is losing its leadership; investors should reduce overweight positions and look elsewhere.
SPY AVOID
Pablo Gil
Japanese equities as relative alternative.
Japanese equities are a preferred alternative to US stocks in relative terms, as the US loses its market leadership and Japan offers a better relative risk-reward for international diversification.
EWJ LONG
HIGH
16:00
Apr 12
Pablo Gil
Por qué la guerra de IRÁN es la sentencia de OCCIDENTE
XLE 1ST ITA 1ST JETS 1ST ▾
Pablo Gil
US energy sector benefits from conflict.
The US energy sector (oil and gas producers) is a clear beneficiary because it is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, it is the world's largest LNG exporter, and it gains pricing power from higher energy prices caused by the conflict.
XLE LONG
Pablo Gil
Defense sector wins from military spending.
The defense sector is a winner because the conflict is driving massive increases in military spending globally, including a $1.5 trillion extra defense request in the US and similar pressures in Europe and Asia.
ITA LONG
Pablo Gil
Airlines rebound strongly on ceasefire.
Airlines are one of the most affected sectors by the conflict and would experience a strong rebound if a credible ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz materializes, as travel demand and fuel costs normalize.
JETS LONG
HIGH