Does Shopify need to drop further? Or is it now valued appropriately for its growth?

I’ve been diving deep into Shopify (SHOP) lately. From a fundamental business perspective, there is so much to like. Their financials look great and the growth rate is awesome. Also, I love the macro positioning here. I think Shopify is in the perfect spot to benefit from the massive trend toward self-entrepreneurship. Whether it’s people launching Print-on-Demand side hustles or established brick-and-mortar shops needing a seamless online presence, Shopify is the "toll booth" for the modern creator economy. They’ve made starting a business so frictionless that they are essentially the default choice for the next generation of entrepreneurs. However, when I actually sit down to model out the next 5 years, I’m having a hard time justifying a "Buy" at current levels. I ran their numbers through the Vestarta Stock Engine to see what my annualized returns (CAGR) would look like under different scenarios: • Base Case: I have revenue tapering from 30% down to 20% over 5 years, with margins expanding to 12.5% (roughly in line with mature e-commerce peers). Even with a healthy 45 P/E, my annualized return is only 2.63% • Bull Case: I pushed revenue to taper from 34 to 25% and assumed margins hit a "best-in-class" 15% with a 48 P/E. That gets me to a 12.58% CAGR. • Bear Case: If revenue drops to 18% by year 5 and margins stay flat at 10.7%, we’re looking at a negative 6.46% return. My Fundamental Checklist: On my personal checklist, Shopify is a beast. It hits 6 out of 7 categories: Strong B2B Revenue Consistent Revenue Growth FCF Positive FCF Growing (25% YoY) Great Cash-to-Debt (5.2x) Great FCF-to-Debt My Dilemma: Even though I believe in the company’s mission and the entrepreneurship trend, the valuation feels like it has "perfection" already priced in. For me to get the 12% returns I’m looking for, I have to assume the Bull Case is the guaranteed outcome. What am I missing?