J.P. Morgan, 1 day before the war started: "we do not anticipate protracted oil supply disruptions"
u/bearoftheyearingear ·
Reddit — r/wallstreetbets
· March 15, 2026 at 12:25
· ⬆ 356 pts
· 💬 35 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author highlights a poorly timed J.P. Morgan forecast from late February 2026 that predicted Brent crude would average $60/bbl and downplayed the risk of protracted supply disruptions.
The post points out that a major war broke out just one day after the article was published, heavily implying that oil prices are now surging and JPM's bearish thesis is completely invalidated.
Quality assessment: Hindsight observation / Macro speculation based on geopolitical events.
Score356
Comments35
Upvote %98%
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Probably the worst prediction of 2026 so far
Article posted on 27th of February (1 day before the war started):
>**Oil price forecast: A bearish outlook for Brent in 2026**
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>Despite a recent spike in oil prices, J.P. Morgan Global Research expects to see Brent crude averaging around $60/bbl in 2026.
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>More recently, markets have turned bullish on oil prices in anticipation that the U.S. will take military action against Iran, with Brent trading around $10/bbl above fair value in mid-February. “But given elevated inflation and this year’s midterm elections in the U.S., we do not anticipate protracted oil supply disruptions. If military action does occur, we expect it to be targeted, avoiding Iran’s oil production and export infrastructure,” Kaneva said. “With the region’s proximity to major energy chokepoints, brief, geopolitically driven crude rallies are likely to continue, but these should eventually subside, leaving soft underlying global market fundamentals.”
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A war broke out (implied involving the US and Iran) immediately after JPM predicted no protracted oil supply disruptions and a bearish $60/bbl price target. The outbreak of war invalidates the "soft underlying global market fundamentals" and introduces massive geopolitical risk premium and supply disruptions to the oil market. Long crude oil as the unexpected conflict drives prices significantly higher than analyst forecasts. The conflict de-escalates rapidly, or massive strategic reserve releases artificially suppress crude prices.
This Reddit post, published March 15, 2026,
features u/bearoftheyearingear
discussing USO.
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