u/Thin-West-2136 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· March 09, 2026 at 12:35
· ⬆ 17 pts
· 💬 40 comments
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AI Summary
Summary
The author is considering selling their oil stocks (SHEL, COP) after significant gains, prompted by a recent jump in oil prices.
The author's primary thesis is that the current conflict driving up oil prices will resolve soon, leading to a drop in oil prices and, consequently, the share prices of oil companies.
Quality assessment: This is speculation. The author's thesis is based on geopolitical predictions without supporting data or in-depth analysis of oil market fundamentals (supply/demand, OPEC+ actions, inventory levels).
Score17
Comments40
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I bought a couple of oil stocks years ago, between 2020 and 2022. I've held on to them and they've steadily ticked upwards, up between 60% and almost 200% on SHEL and COP.
As oil has recently jumped, so has the share price for these companies. I'm wondering if now is a good time to sell and just take some profit?
My thesis is that the war in its current format won't go on for much longer. The US and Israel have too big an advantage for Iran to keep pace, so oil will start flowing freely again within weeks to months. Which will inevitably lower prices.
On the other hand there may be a glut in supply for the short term (potentially a year or two) as it'll take a while to repair the oil facilities which have been/will soon be damaged, so the price may take longer to come back down.