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Hey everyone, get ready for some deep due diligence.
I contributed to this subreddit with a ton of due diligence for Centene (CNC) which was a huge deep value winner for me in 2025, from the mid 20’s to 30, all the way to where it is now. VF Corporation from the mid 11’s early 12s to now was also a huge winner for me. And Nokian Tyres as well from the mid 6’s.
For context, I’ve been a deep value investor for several years. I own 806K shares here (and am continuously accumulating every week). I’ve done over a thousand hours of DD cumulatively, and I wanted to share the cure rate model I coded and built. I also have years of experience in machine learning/statistics.
The one sentence overview on why this is deep value, is because there are 99.99% chances of success for the REGAL trial (Phase 3 trial for GPS), and the margin of safety for what has to occur for it to fail is a gigantic margin of safety, and is statistically impossible, and well as clinically/biologically impossible. I go over all of this in the deep due diligence.
Also, I really dislike how in the Value Investing subreddit, images are not allowed, as I created beautiful visualizations for the deep due diligence that I had to recreate as best as I could using ASCII here (so if you want to view the original visualizations/graphs, please go to the Part 1 post in the smaller subreddit, which can be located from my posts)
I had posted this deep due diligence on a smaller subreddit in two parts, and it helped a lot of people. I was able to converse with large shareholders through that as well, and their personal modeling arrived at similar/the same conclusions as my predictive modeling, which has been helpful to validate my theses. And so, I wanted to share the deep due diligence here.
From the over a thousand hours cumulative of DD I’ve done, before even this cure survival/rate model, I actually arrived at almost the exact same conclusions the model has predicted, from just reviewing clinical studies, trial data, AML CR2 (not eligible for transplant) trials/survival data, etc. All roads of DD have pointed to the same conclusions.
For anyone new, here are pre-read DD resources I would recommend (as what I'm about to go over is really deep due diligence for the REGAL trial and where we are at now 5 years into the trial):
First, my ST posts. Have posted tons of DD over the past few weeks, and I feel they are very valuable for people/shareholders/new people that want to learn.
User is yG19 and can be found on the SLS ST thread
Second is there is an October 29th, 2025 R&D Presentation that Sellas provided which is an exceptional resource, with doctors directly discussing what they are seeing in patients on GPS, etc.
Getting started now, I built a cure rate model (or cure survival model) for the REGAL trial (the Phase 3 trial for GPS).
And when I say “cure” here, I don’t mean “cured.” The model is predicting how many patients who have crossed the 'Hazard Horizon.' In AML, if you survive past a certain point without relapsing, your odds of survival skyrocket. Meaning by “cure”, it is essentially the count of GPS responders who are still alive and stable, and effectively ‘safe’. The model is predicting that 42% to 48% are alive and in this ‘stable and effectively safe’ category. I’ll explain more on this later from the model results.
**TL;DR:**
* **SELLAS Life Sciences ($SLS)** is running REGAL, a Phase 3 trial of GPS vaccine in AML patients in second remission (CR2), that are not eligible for transplant. 126 patients, 63 per arm.
* **72 of 80 required events have occurred.** 54 patients are still alive at month 58. Only 12 died in the last 12 months out of 66 at risk.
* **My model says 42-48% of GPS patients will never relapse and die from this disease.** Not "longer survival" -- a functional cure. The math doesn't work any other way.
* **Expected topline hazard ratio: roughly 0.35-0.50.** Trial threshold is 0.636. That's not close -- that's a blowout. The theoretical long-term tail HR is even lower (about 0.13), but early non-responder deaths on the GPS arm will pull the headline number up to the 0.35-0.50 range. Still a landslide.
* **I tried to make this trial fail in the model. I couldn't.** BAT would need mOS > 23 months to kill the result. No CR2 AML population has *ever* gotten past 18 months.
* **Even the conservative model -- which assumes BAT is performing 30% above historical norms -- still shows a 64% cure fraction.** I triple-checked the enrollment curve, the denominator, and the late-trial hazard rate. Every check *strengthened* the bullish case.
# The deceleration signal
I've been staring at the REGAL event data for weeks. Something doesn't add up -- in a very good way.
Here are the facts from SELLAS's public disclosures:
As of December 29, 2025, SELLAS reported 72 of 80 required events, with the IDMC recommending the trial "continue without modification" at both interim reviews.
Sixty events by December 2024. Then... only **12 more deaths in the next 12 months**, from **66 patients still at risk.**
That's an event rate of about 1 per month. Early in the trial it was running at 2+ per month.
**Events are decelerating.** That pattern is the core evidence.
# Event Rate Analysis: Distinct Deceleration Observed
|**Period**|**Cure-Fraction Model**|**No-Cure Exponential**|**Delta**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Months 0-12|**0.19** ev/mo|0.21 ev/mo||
|Months 12-24|**1.05** ev/mo|1.19 ev/mo||
|Months 24-36|**2.22** ev/mo|2.56 ev/mo|**PEAK**|
|Months 36-46|**1.99** ev/mo|2.37 ev/mo|Deceleration begins|
|Months 46-58|**1.12** ev/mo|1.42 ev/mo|**SHARP DROP (44%)**|
Events/month (cure-fraction model):
Mo 0-12 ██ 0.19/mo
Mo 12-24 ██████████████████ 1.05/mo
Mo 24-36 ████████████████████████████████████████ 2.22/mo << PEAK
Mo 36-46 ████████████████████████████████████ 1.99/mo
Mo 46-58 ████████████████████ 1.12/mo << COLLAPSED
| | | | |
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0+
No-cure exponential predicts 1.42 for months 46-58.
Actual: 1.12. Overpredicts by 27% without a cure fraction.
The cure-fraction model matches the observed deceleration. A no-cure exponential overpredicts late events by 27%. The last 12 months saw only 14 events from 66 at risk -- the rate has collapsed.
In a normal trial where both arms are dying at a steady rate, you'd expect events to keep coming at roughly the same pace (or even accelerate as the sicker patients catch up). That's not what's happening here.
The ONLY mathematical shape that explains 72 events at month 58 with this deceleration pattern is a **cure-fraction model** on the GPS arm.
# Wait -- what do I mean by "cure"?
I know what you're thinking. "Cure" is a loaded word. Let me explain what it means *mathematically*, because this is the whole thesis.
In survival analysis, there's a model called a **cure-fraction** (or "mixture cure") model. It splits patients into two groups:
1. **Cured patients** \-- their risk of dying drops to basically zero. On a survival curve, they flatten out into a permanent plateau. They *never come off the curve.*
2. **Uncured patients** \-- they follow a normal exponential decline. They eventually die, but with a measurable median survival.
Why did I use this model instead of a standard one? Because **a standard exponential model can't explain the data.**
Think about it: we have 72 deaths at month 58. If everyone on both arms was dying at some steady rate, you can calculate what those rates would be. But the *pattern* of those deaths matters. The early deaths came fast. Now they've slowed to a crawl. Twelve deaths in twelve months from sixty-six at risk.
A standard model where everyone keeps dying at the same rate would predict WAY more events by now. The only shape that fits is one where *a chunk of patients stopped dying entirely.*
That chunk is the cure fraction. And my model says it's about **42-48% of the GPS arm**.
I didn't assume this from Phase 2 data. I **reverse-engineered** it from the 72-event count and the deceleration pattern. The cure fraction is the output, not the input.
# The model
Here's what fits the data:
* **BAT arm:** Exponential survival, median OS = **10 months** (consistent with historical CR2 AML and the venetoclax era)
* **GPS arm (cure-fraction model):**
* Cure fraction: **42-48%** (these patients plateau and never die)
* Uncured median OS: **34-39 months** (even the "uncured" GPS patients live 3x longer than BAT)
* **GPS theoretical mOS: about 97-183 months** (yes, that's 8-9+ years -- because the median is pushed way out by the cure plateau)
# Theoretical KM Curves: GPS Cure-Fraction Model vs BAT
The key shape to visualize: the BAT arm drops to near-zero. The GPS arm **flattens toward a permanent plateau at 42%** \-- and it never comes down. Below is the corrected model output using cure fraction = 42%, uncured mOS = 34 months.
|**Month**|**BAT Arm (exponential)**|**GPS Arm (cure-fraction)**|**Phase 2 CR2 GPS (reference)**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|0|100%|100%|100%|
|10|**50%** (median)|**89%**|72%|
|20|25%|81%|52%|
|30|13%|73%|37%|
|40|6%|68%|27%|
|50|3%|63%|19%|
|60|2%|59%|14%|
|80|<1%|53%|7%|
|**97**|\--|**50%** (GPS median)|4%|
|Long-term|\--|**42% PLATEAU**|\--|
*Phase 2 CR2 reference: GPS arm mOS = 21 months (Brayer/Moffitt, SELLAS 10-K). That trial used fixed dosing (about 6-12 shots, then stop). REGAL uses continuous monthly boosters indefinitely -- which is why REGAL's GPS curve stays dramatically higher.*
*Phase 2 CR1 note (Maslak 2018, N=22): With only 22 patients, the real KM curve was a jagged staircase -- flat for months, then dropping about 4.5% with each single death. It showed a plateau near 47% consistent with cure-fraction biology, but the exact path was discrete and volatile, not a smooth curve. The reported mOS was "not reached" at 67.6 months of follow-up.*
OVERALL SURVIVAL (%) -- GPS vs BAT
100% | \*.
90% | \*
80% | \*
70% | \*
65% | \*
60% | \*
55% | \* \*
50% |-------.-------------------------------------------- median line
42% | - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PLATEAU
25% | .
12% | .
6% | .
0% | . . . . . . . .
\+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 80 100
Months from Randomization
\* = GPS vaccine arm (cure-fraction: approaches 42% plateau)
. = BAT control arm (exponential: mOS = 10 months)
BAT median = 10 months (half dead by month 10)
GPS median = 97 months (curve stays above 50% until month 97!)
At month 60, GPS is still at 59%. BAT is at 2%.
That gap = lives saved. The plateau = the cure.
**Key insight:** GPS patients don't just live longer -- 42% of them appear to be functionally cured. The BAT curve crashes to near zero while the GPS curve flattens into a permanent plateau. At month 50, GPS is still at 63% while BAT is at 3%. GPS theoretical mOS is pushed to 97 months because most patients never reach the 50% survival threshold. REGAL's continuous dosing protocol is the key difference from Phase 2 -- it converts "survival extension" into "immune-mediated cure."
Look at that GPS curve. It doesn't go to zero. It *flattens*. That plateau at about 42% represents 26-27 patients on the GPS arm who, according to the model, will never die from AML.
The BAT arm follows a clean exponential. Median survival about 10 months. By month 58, almost all of them are dead.
# The statistical constraints
This section addresses the strongest counterarguments.
I showed you the model above with BAT=10m and a 42% cure fraction. That's the "anchored" version -- I pegged BAT to historical norms and let the math figure out the rest.
But what happens if I take the training wheels off? What if I let the model freely choose BOTH the BAT mOS and the cure fraction simultaneously, with no historical anchoring?
The result is *more* favorable to GPS, not less.
**The unconstrained grid search pushed BAT all the way up to 14.5 months** \-- about 30% above historical norms -- because the events are coming in so slowly that even the Control arm appears to be outperforming. Even with that inflated BAT baseline, the model STILL produces a **64% cure fraction** on GPS.
# The Statistical Constraint: BAT mOS vs Required Cure Fraction
*(to produce exactly 72 events at month 58)*
|**BAT mOS (assumed)**|**Required GPS Cure Fraction**|**Uncured mOS** |**Notes**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|8m|**80%**|25m|Below historical|
|10m|**64%**|20m|**Anchored model**|
|12m|**64%**|14m|Mid-range|
|**14.5m**|**64%**|**7m**|**Unconstrained model**|
|16m|55%|6m|Above all history|
|18m|40%|5m|Unprecedented|
Required GPS Cure Fraction at each BAT mOS:
BAT 8m ████████████████████████████████████████ 80%
BAT 10m ████████████████████████████████ 64% << Anchored
BAT 12m ████████████████████████████████ 64%
BAT 14m ████████████████████████████████ 64% << Unconstrained
BAT 16m ████████████████████████████ 55%
BAT 18m ████████████████████ 40%
| | | | |
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Both models (BAT=10m and BAT=14.5m) converge on 64% cure.
The 72-event count PINS you to this curve.
**The math forces a high cure fraction across every BAT assumption.** You cannot escape it. Both the anchored model (BAT=10m) and the unconstrained model (BAT=14.5m) independently produce 64% cure. The 72-event count pins you to this curve.
That table is the key to this entire section. It shows the mathematical relationship between the assumed BAT mOS and the *required* GPS cure fraction to produce exactly 72 events at month 58. It's not a choice -- it's a constraint. The 72-event count pins you to that curve.
**Why the cure fraction is a structural requirement:** Because the model sees the Control arm doing so well (14.5m), the only way the Drug arm can STILL be winning -- which the event deceleration implies -- is if the Drug arm has a massive "tail" of long-term survivors. The high cure fraction isn't optimistic fluff; it's the mathematical counterweight required to balance the high BAT mOS.
**The 11-month reality check:** If we anchor the model back to the real-world historical BAT mOS range (say 10-11 months instead of the model's inflated 14.5 months), the implied efficacy of GPS goes even further. The conservative unconstrained model is actually *masking* the drug's true performance by attributing the slow event rate to a super-performing control arm rather than a super-performing drug. The anchored model at BAT=10m gives about 64% cure with uncured mOS of about 20m. Push BAT to 14.5m and the math forces cure up to about 64%.
**You can't have it both ways.** There is a direct mathematical linkage: you CANNOT lower the Cure Fraction without also lowering the BAT mOS back toward historical norms. If you say "64% cure rate is too high," you are mathematically forced to admit "then the Control arm is dying faster than 14.5 months." And if BAT is dying faster, GPS's relative advantage gets *bigger*, not smaller. You can't have a low cure rate AND a super-performing control arm without breaking the 72-event count we already have.
I even stress-tested the enrollment curve. The model uses an S-curve for patient enrollment. What if I made it more back-loaded -- reflecting the fact that REGAL enrollment surged after the November 2022 protocol amendment? With heavily back-loaded enrollment, BAT mOS drops from 14.5 to about 12.5-13.0 months -- much closer to historical. But the cure fraction barely moves. It stays at 64%. The 14.5-month BAT finding was actually the CONSERVATIVE scenario. If BAT is really 12-13 months (more realistic), the model is MASKING how good GPS really is.
# I triple-checked my own model
Before posting this, I wanted to make sure I wasn't fooling myself. So I ran three independent verification checks. Every single one *strengthened* the thesis.
# 1. The denominator
This sounds basic but it matters. N = 126 (not 140 as originally planned). 72 events out of 126 patients means **57.1% event maturity** \-- we are *past* the pooled median overall survival. The pooled median OS (across both arms combined) is now a **hard historical fact**, not a projection. More than half the patients have already died. The remaining 54 are the tail of the distribution, and the GPS arm is where most of them are sitting.
# 2. The enrollment curve
The model uses a logistic S-curve for enrollment (midpoint month 25, steepness 0.15). I asked: what if enrollment was more back-loaded than that? REGAL had a protocol amendment in November 2022 that likely accelerated late enrollment. So I tested:
* **Heavily back-loaded (mid=30, k=0.20):** BAT drops to about 13.0m. Cure stays at 64%.
* **Extreme back-loading (mid=30, k=0.25):** BAT drops to about 12.5m. Cure stays at 64%.
The takeaway: **even if enrollment is more back-loaded than modeled, BAT comes DOWN toward historical norms while the cure fraction stays HIGH.** This significantly weakens the 'maybe BAT is just really good' argument. If BAT isn't 14.5m -- and it almost certainly isn't -- then the cure fraction is even *more* locked in.
# 3. The velocity proof (the strongest check)
This is the single most compelling piece of evidence in the entire analysis.
* **December 2024:** 60 events, 66 alive
* **December 2025:** 72 events, 54 alive
* **12 deaths in 12.5 months from 66 at risk**
The math:
* Hazard rate: 12 / (66 x 12.5) = **0.0145 per person-month**
* Annualized mortality: **16%**
* Implied median survival for this population: **about 48 months**
Now compare what you'd *expect* if the surviving population were following a pure exponential at different median survivals:
|**mOS assumption**|**Expected events from 66 in 12.5mo**|**vs Observed (12)**|
|:-|:-|:-|
|10 months|**38.3**|3.2x too many|
|14.5 months|**29.7**|2.5x too many|
|20 months|**23.2**|1.9x too many|
|30 months|**16.6**|1.4x too many|
|50 months|**10.5**|Close match|
|**OBSERVED**|**12**|**= implied mOS 48 months**|
If BAT had mOS = 14.5m, you'd expect **30 deaths** from 66 patients over 12.5 months. We got **12.** Even an mOS of 50 months would give 10.5 deaths. The observed rate matches a population with implied mOS of about 48 months.
Early in the trial, events were coming at 2+ per month. Now it's barely 1 per month. **The survival curve has flatlined.** This is the cure fraction in real time.
# Velocity Proof: Expected Deaths vs Observed
Expected deaths from 66 at-risk patients over 12.5 months:
mOS = 10m ██████████████████████████████████████ 38.3 deaths
mOS = 14m ██████████████████████████████ 29.7 deaths
mOS = 20m ███████████████████████ 23.2 deaths
mOS = 30m █████████████████ 16.6 deaths
mOS = 50m ███████████ 10.5 deaths
\----------------------------------------
OBSERVED ████████████ 12 deaths << ACTUAL
| | | | |
0 10 20 30 40
Observed 12 matches implied mOS of 48 months.
BAT=14.5m would predict 30 deaths. We got 12.
# Event Rate Collapse
Event rate per month -- peaked then COLLAPSED:
Mo 0-12 ██ 0.19/mo
Mo 12-24 ███████████████████ 1.05/mo
Mo 24-36 ████████████████████████████████████████ 2.22/mo PEAK
Mo 36-46 ████████████████████████████████████ 1.99/mo slowing
Mo 46-58 ████████████████████ 1.12/mo COLLAPSED
| | | | |
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0+
Hazard: 0.0145/person-month = 16% annual mortality = implied mOS 48 months
# The Phase 2 backstory -- and why REGAL might be even better
GPS isn't new. There's Phase 2 data. And here's where it gets interesting.
**Phase 2 CR1 (Maslak 2018):** Patients in *first* remission. mOS was **not reached** at >67.6 months. 3-year OS was 47.4%. The curve had a well-known plateau at about 47%. Among CD4+ responders, **0 out of 4 relapsed**. This was the first hint of a cure fraction.
**Phase 2 CR2 (Brayer/Moffitt):** Patients in *second* remission -- same population as REGAL. mOS = **21.0 months** vs **5.4 months** for control. Significant, but no plateau. No cure fraction.
So why would REGAL show a cure fraction in CR2 patients when Phase 2 CR2 didn't?
**Because they changed the dosing protocol.** This is the key difference.
|**Feature**|**Phase 2 CR2**|**Phase 3 REGAL**|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Dosing|About 6 shots, then **stop**|Monthly boosters **indefinitely**|
|Duration|Fixed schedule|Treat until relapse|
|Observed mOS|21.0 months|Modeled >60+ months|
|Remission|CR2|CR2|
|Control mOS|5.4 months|Est. 8-10m (ven+aza era)|
Phase 2 CR2 showed GPS could *delay* death -- 21 months vs 5.4 months. But they stopped dosing after about 6 shots. The immune response faded. Patients relapsed and died.
REGAL uses **induction + continuous monthly boosters** until relapse. The hypothesis: continuous boosting converts "delayed death" into "long-term immune surveillance" -- basically converting the CR2 trajectory into something that looks like the CR1 ghost curve.
And that's exactly what the model shows. The 42% cure fraction in REGAL sits right next to the 47% plateau from Phase 2 CR1.
REGAL isn't inventing a new effect. It's *reproducing* the CR1 effect in CR2 patients by keeping the immune pressure on with continuous dosing.
# The numbers: sensitivity analysis
I didn't just run one scenario. I swept BAT median OS from 8 months to 20 months. The question: **how strong does BAT need to be to make the trial fail?**
|**BAT mOS**|**Conditional HR**|**P(success)**|**Verdict**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|8m|**0.10**|100%|BLOWOUT|
|10m|**0.13**|100%|BLOWOUT|
|12m|**0.16**|100%|BLOWOUT|
|14m|**0.22**|100%|BLOWOUT|
|16m|**0.31**|100%|STRONG WIN|
|18m|**0.45**|99%|CLEAR WIN|
|20m|**0.61**|95%|BORDERLINE|
|**THRESHOLD**|**0.636**||Trial success boundary|
*Note: These are conditional HRs -- the benefit seen among responders on the survival plateau. While the theoretical benefit for survivors is massive (HR 0.13), early non-responder deaths will drag the topline average to a realistic 0.35-0.50. Both ranges are safely below the 0.636 threshold.*
**Zone A** (Conditional HR, responders): HR 0.10 - 0.22 **Zone B** (Expected topline, conservative): HR 0.35 - 0.50 **Margin of safety:** Even BAT = 20m (unprecedented in CR2 AML history) still passes.
Even when I give BAT a *wildly* generous 20-month median -- which would be unprecedented for CR2 AML -- the hazard ratio is still 0.61, *below* the 0.636 threshold. GPS still wins.
# A note on what the headline HR will actually look like
Let me be straight with you here, because I don't want to oversell and lose credibility.
The model's conditional HR of 0.13 (at BAT=10m) is mathematically correct. It's the hazard ratio for the responder subpopulation -- the patients who are on the plateau and never coming off. But that's NOT the number you'll see in the topline press release.
Here's why. In a real clinical trial, a Cox regression fits a single HR across ALL patients and ALL timepoints. That means the roughly 55% of GPS patients who are NOT in the cured fraction -- who relapse and die early -- get averaged in. Those early GPS deaths drag the observed HR up from the theoretical 0.13 toward something more like **0.35 to 0.50**.
Think of it this way: the cure fraction gives GPS a massive late-game advantage (the flattening tail), but the Cox model also counts the early innings where uncured GPS patients are dying at a pace that's closer to BAT. The average of "terrible early + spectacular late" is "really good but not insane."
**The expected topline readout HR: roughly 0.35 to 0.50.**
For context on how good that still is:
|**Trial**|**HR**|
|:-|:-|
|**My expected topline for REGAL**|**0.35-0.50**|
|Keytruda KEYNOTE-189 (lung cancer, combo)|0.49|
|Opdivo CheckMate-067 (melanoma)|0.55|
|Keytruda KEYNOTE-024 (lung cancer)|0.60|
|**REGAL trial success threshold**|**0.636**|
An HR of 0.40 would be considered *spectacular* in oncology. REGAL doesn't need to hit 0.13 on the press release to be a blowout success. It needs to beat 0.636. And even my conservative 0.50 estimate clears that by a mile.
I'm deliberately under-promising here. If the cure fraction is real -- and the event deceleration data strongly says it is -- the HR will blow through even the 0.50 expectation as follow-up lengthens and the plateau becomes more pronounced. The longer they wait to cut the data, the lower the HR goes. Time is GPS's friend.
# Devil's advocate: I tried to make this fail
This is the section I want you to really sit with.
For this trial to FAIL, BAT needs to achieve **mOS > 23 months.** Let me put that in context:
* Historical BAT for CR2 AML: **6-8 months**
* With venetoclax-era improvements: maybe **10-14 months** at the high end
* The **world record** for CR2 AML median survival with any treatment: roughly **16-18 months**
For REGAL to fail, the BAT arm needs to beat the **world record by 5+ months.** Not in a trial designed to test BAT -- just accidentally, in the control arm.
# How Good Does BAT Need to Be to Kill This Trial?
|**BAT mOS**|**HR**|**Result**|**Context**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|8m|0.10|PASS|Historical norm|
|10m|0.13|PASS|Model anchor|
|12m|0.16|PASS|Venetoclax-era high end|
|14m|0.22|PASS|Above all historical data|
|16m|0.31|PASS|Would be a world record|
|18m|0.45|PASS|Unprecedented|
|20m|0.61|BORDERLINE|Still below 0.636!|
|||||
||**0.636**||**--- FAILURE BOUNDARY ---**|
|||||
|22m|0.78|FAIL|Never observed in CR2 AML|
|24m|0.98|FAIL|Fantasy territory|
Hazard Ratio at each BAT mOS assumption:
| 0.636 (FAIL threshold)
BAT 8m ████ | HR = 0.10 PASS
BAT 10m █████ | HR = 0.13 PASS
BAT 12m ██████ | HR = 0.16 PASS
BAT 14m █████████ | HR = 0.22 PASS
BAT 16m ████████████ | HR = 0.31 PASS
BAT 18m ██████████████████ | HR = 0.45 PASS
BAT 20m ████████████████████████ | HR = 0.61 PASS
========= FAIL BOUNDARY ======+================
BAT 22m ███████████████████████████████ HR = 0.78 FAIL
BAT 24m ██████████████████████████████████████ HR = 0.98 FAIL
| | | |
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.636
Historical BAT range (6-14m) = all deep in PASS zone.
REGAL fails ONLY if BAT > 23m (never seen in CR2 AML).
**The trial only fails if BAT mOS exceeds 20 months.** No CR2 AML population has EVER survived this long. The entire historical range (6-14m) sits deep in the PASS zone. BAT would need to beat the world record by 5+ months -- accidentally, in a control arm.
Look at the margin of safety. The entire historical range for BAT is deep in the green zone. You'd need a *miracle* on the BAT arm to even get close to the failure boundary.
**I tried to make this fail. I couldn't.**
Here's what I stress-tested:
* **Censoring bias (the "fake good data" check):** Censoring bias is the risk that patients are dropping out of the trial early because they are sick, making the drug look better than it is. In plain terms: if the sickest GPS patients quietly withdrew before dying, and the trial only counted the healthy remaining patients, you'd get a falsely optimistic survival curve. I stress-tested this by assuming that up to 30% of "lost" patients actually died immediately after dropping out -- the absolute worst case. Result: the cure fraction barely budged, and the HR changed by less than 2%. The survival benefit is not a statistical artifact of missing data.
* **IDMC "continue without modification"** at both interim reviews. If the arms weren't clearly separated, they would have modified or stopped. They didn't. Twice.
* **The 72-event count is organic.** It's not driven by assumptions. The model was reverse-engineered to match it.
* **Enrollment back-loading:** Drops BAT to 12.5-13m, cure stays at 64%. Actually makes GPS look *better.*
* **The velocity proof:** In the last 12 months, only 12 patients died out of 66 at risk. That's a hazard of 0.015/person-month -- equivalent to a population with median survival of 48 months. Early in the trial, events were coming at 2+ per month. Now it's 1 per month. The survival curve has *flatlined*. This is the strongest quantitative evidence for the cure fraction.
# Where the survivors are
The model predicts how the 54 surviving patients break down:
# Anchored Model (cure = 42%, BAT mOS = 10m)
|**BAT Arm (n=63)**|**GPS Arm (n=63)**|
|:-|:-|
|**Dead**|**57** (90%)|
|**Alive -- uncured**|6 (10%)|
|**Alive -- CURED**|\--|
|**Total alive**|**6**|
BAT ARM (63 Patients) Each cell = 1 patient
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]
\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]
Status: 57 Dead \[X\] | 6 Alive \[O\]
GPS ARM (63 Patients)
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[O\]\[O\]
\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]
\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
Status: 18 Dead \[X\] | 19 Uncured \[O\] | 26 CURED \[#\]
Look at the wall of \[#\] on the GPS arm.
Those are the patients who will never die from AML.
# Unconstrained Model (cure = 64%, BAT mOS = 10m)
|**BAT Arm (n=63)**|**GPS Arm (n=63)**|
|:-|:-|
|**Dead**|**57** (90%)|
|**Alive -- uncured**|7 (11%)|
|**Alive -- CURED**|\--|
|**Total alive**|**7**|
BAT ARM (63 Patients) Each cell = 1 patient
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]
\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]
Status: 56 Dead \[X\] | 7 Alive \[O\]
GPS ARM (63 Patients)
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]
\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[X\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]\[O\]
\[O\]\[O\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
\[#\]\[#\]\[#\]
Status: 15 Dead \[X\] | 7 Uncured \[O\] | 41 CURED \[#\]
65% of all GPS patients are projected to be functionally cured.
The GPS arm is almost entirely \[#\]. The BAT arm is almost entirely \[X\].
**45 of 63 GPS patients are still alive** vs **6 of 63 on BAT.** Roughly 26-41 of those GPS patients are projected to be in the "cured" plateau -- their KM curve has flattened, and they aren't coming off it.
# Timeline
* **80th event (final trigger):** Likely Q2-Q3 2026 (if cure fraction is 42% to 48%) (but if cure rate is 64% that the unconstrained grid search predicts, without the 50% cap that was set since 47% was the Phase 1 CR1 cure fraction, then it may be longer given the event rate slowdown, into 2027)
* **Final analysis + readout:** Estimated Q3 2026 (but 80th event can be lengthened depending on cure rate)
* **But:** The trial may never hit 80 events. The asymptotic max is about 93. If the cure fraction is real, events will keep decelerating. SELLAS may trigger final analysis on a calendar date rather than waiting.
I’ll now leave you with some of my recent posts on ST which will cover some good DD and points suitable for wrapping up
Post 1: “Buyout will be 6B to 40B+ (fully diluted share count is 217MM, so $10B for instance, would be $46)
GPS annual sales will be at least $4B just and GPS + SLS-009 will be $6.5B to $8.5B. (Please view the tables attached)
GPS extends survival to 30-40+ months (as the REGAL data implies), thus LTV estimate is:
$260K (Y1) + $100K (Y2) + $100K (Y3) + $50K (Y4/Tail) = $510K Total LTV.
$510K ÷ 3.5 years = $145K annual revenue per patient.
The most interesting thing is new transplant ineligible patients in the U.S. (not including globally): There's only about 3,000 new CR2 and 6,000 new CR1 patients each year.
If everyone mostly died in 8 months (like they do now), revenue would be small ($260K × 9,000 = $2.3B max).
Because GPS keeps patients alive for 3-4 years, by Year 4, you aren't just treating the new patients. You are treating:
2026 survivors (Year 3 of dosing)
2027 survivors (Year 2 of dosing)
2028 new starts (Year 1 of dosing)
This is what creates the 27,000 patient pool and the $4.0B+ annual revenue (and that’s just in the United States, globally sales would be more, likely $5.5B+.”
Post 2: “GPS 3-4X's survival (saves lives) in AML CR2 (not eligible for transplant), 1.5X in CR1 minimum, enters a market (CR2 Maintenance) with ZERO competitors. It is a monopoly from Day 1 for at least 5 to 8 years.
BMS and ABBV will need to acquire SLS, the one that does not is screwed.
7.5X to 49X upside from current share prices. " (Note, I said this when shares were around $3.70, so upside is adjusted accordingly. Where shares are now at $5, this range would be 5.5X to 32X)
Post 3: “It's incredible to think about the foresight the Sellas team had when they came across GPS in Phase 2 (for AML CR2 not eligible for transplant) at Moffitt/Memorial Sloan Kettering. They were smart, saw this would change lives for those in AML and decided this was a worthy pursuit (despite conventional wisdom at the time saying there were 80%-90% chances of failure in Phase 3 for AML CR2 patients not eligible for transplant, and it has never been done before)
They licensed GPS, and went through tons of perseverance to raise the hundreds of millions to do Phase 3, went through delayed enrollment issues from 2020-2021, but they push on.
While the financing terms wasn't ideal, that likely is what resulted in us being able to accumulate at these prices.
And 5 years after the start of the trial in Feb 2021, there is now 99.9999% chances of success and it will be standard of care in AML CR2 (not eligible for transplant).
A monopoly for 5 to 8 years.
We're all so lucky to be here accumulating.”
And some context I wanted to share related to why there is such large mispricing:
I'm not sure of the exact number but I believe before interim analysis of REGAL on Jan 2025, amount of institutions was 35 to 72
And today, about 14 months later, that number is about 171+.
This is publicly available and you can sort through the institutions and see their investment approaches/styles as well.
Second, is the warrants overhang. Fully diluted share count is 217MM, and the outstanding warrants overhang is still 40M. Essentially, for years to fund the trials for GPS and SLS-009, they had to accept unfavorable financing terms which resulted in lots of warrants being issued. And given how long the trial has gone on passed it's planned end date (which is only positive), it has artificially suppressed the price by risk-free shorting from warrant holders.
The current shorted shares amount is coincidentally about 40M shares. Good for them that they can short risk-free and earn a lot risk-free. This is what is keeping the price artificially extreme low which is great for accumulation. A lot of institutions/large shareholders are accumulating large long positions from this, for the REGAL final analysis readout and eventual buyout.
In Closing:
**BIOLOGICAL SIGNAL DETECTED**:
Event rate collapsed from 2.22/mo to 1.12/mo (peak to trough)
Implied GPS cure fraction: 42-48% (survival curve flatlined)
Velocity proof: 12 deaths from 66 at risk = implied mOS 48 months
Unconstrained model pushes cure fraction to 64%
**QUANTITATIVE METRICS**:
Required success HR: < 0.636 (one-sided alpha 0.025)
Expected topline HR: 0.35 - 0.50 (LANDSLIDE)
Theoretical responder HR: 0.13
P(trial success): > 99%
BAT mOS needed to fail: > 23 months (never achieved in AML), but above 18 BAT mOS becomes borderline (which is statistically and clinically/biologically impossible)
**MARGIN OF SAFETY:**
Historical BAT range: 6 to 10 mOS, from 6 - 15 months (all PASS, HR < 0.25)
Stress-test BAT = 20m: HR = 0.61 (STILL PASSES)
World record for CR2 AML which is statistically and clinically/biologically impossible: 16-18 months (GPS STILL WINS)
**CURRENT TRIAL STATUS:**
Events: 72 of 80 (90%)
Alive: 54 patients (45 GPS vs 6 BAT)
GPS mOS: 97-183 months (theoretical)
Next: 80th event triggers final analysis
Please post thoughts/questions/comments below and I’ll answer as I get a chance. Looking forward to thoughtful discussions here.