For value investors that sold PYPL after Q4 earnings, what has fundamentally changed?
u/Iulian1988 ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· February 15, 2026 at 14:53
· ⬆ 36 pts
· 💬 144 comments
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I'm struggling to understand what expectations justified a 40% drawdown following this earnings report, since none of the core investment thesis from 3-6 months ago have been invalidated.
**As per Q4 report PYPL remains the same company as it was 3-6 months ago:**
* Mid-single-digit revenue growth with 1.2M user additions this quarter
* $6B annual buyback program confirmed
* Venmo maintaining double-digit growth
* BNPL offering growth and a key differentiator vs. Apple Pay/Google Pay
* AI agentic commerce strategy still intact with the caveat of more investments needed this year that will reduce EPS.
* One of the largest stablecoins - PYUSD
* Resilient European business with growth potential
* Largest network of merchants, etc.
**The negatives:** Branded checkout growth decelerated to 1% due to consumer weakness (macro factors) and execution issues (that can be resolved) —for which the CEO was replaced. Management is also guiding for mid-single-digit EPS decline as they invest in AI commerce and product alignment.
**Why the CEO change could be bullish:** Enrique Lores' compensation is directly tied to stock price performance, aligning management with shareholders – his compensation will increase substantially if the stock price recovers. His playbook seems straightforward in this context: maintain aggressive buybacks (reducing shares outstanding by \~15% annually at current prices), improve execution on branded checkouts (which will be done this year), and trim middle management in order to reduce employee SBC. This is why he left HP, the guy took the easiest job in the world.
**My question to value investors who sold after Q4 earnings:** What fundamental change in the business model or competitive position convinced you to exit at 40USD per share? I think nobody bought PYPL expecting 15% revenue growth in Q4.
I may have blindspots here, so genuine pushback is welcome.
Please do not comment “nobody uses paypal anymore”, you are wasting everyone time.