Who Called the AI Infrastructure Winners Early in 2026?

On December 26, 2025, an X writer posting as @aleabitoreddit argued that AXT, a little-known supplier of indium-phosphide substrates, sat at a potential bottleneck in AI networking. He disclosed an AXTI position that month. His detailed January 2 follow-up gave a new reader a chance to examine the idea. Someone who bought at our modeled entry, $16.67 on January 5, would have seen AXTI reach $75.90 by September 24: +355.3%, against +11.6% for SPY over the same dates. That is a return after the January publication, not the author's return from December.

That is a remarkable call. It is not proof that every name on the writer's list worked: his January 2 ratings also marked Cipher Mining and IREN as “Strong Buy.” Buying those at the modeled January 5 close and holding to September 24 would have returned −0.3% and −4.3%, respectively, while SPY gained 11.6%.

We looked beyond YouTube at dated ideas in Buzzberg's archive of X posts, Reddit discussions and investment newsletters. Where a 2026 post pointed to a 2025 thesis or an earlier holding, we followed that trail. The aim was to find specific, public arguments that preceded large moves, then check less successful ideas beside them. These are selected examples, not an exhaustive ranking of every AI stock or commentator.

The public ideas, measured from publication

For each row, we use the close on the first U.S. trading day after the UTC publication date, then the September 24 close. SPY starts and ends on the same dates. These are stock-price changes before dividends, fees and trading costs. A disclosed holding, a bullish argument and an explicit new purchase are different things; the table models a new reader's purchase, not the author's actual account.

Storage: Sandisk was already a 2025 position; Backblaze was a 2026 Reddit idea

On January 7, @bubbleboi said he already owned Sandisk and was holding it. The post quotes a June 2, 2025 discussion about storage demand, and he says he bought Sandisk around that time. We have not verified his trade date or price. His January argument was that growing AI models and context windows would increase demand for flash storage. A new buyer at our January 8 modeled entry close would be up 424.2% by September 24, versus 11.3% for SPY. It would be wrong to call January 7 his first Sandisk call—or to present that 2026 return as what he earned.

It was not just an X trade. A January 16 Reddit post argued that AI-data-center demand and memory shortages could keep pushing Sandisk higher. A reader buying after that post would be up 287.0%. In March, the Asymmetrical Bets newsletter said it had added to Sandisk and Micron positions; Sandisk is +149.6% from the modeled entry close. Those later entries gave up part of the January move, but they were far from too late to matter. This does not establish that any one writer discovered Sandisk first.

Backblaze was a smaller storage bet. A February 18 Reddit author disclosed a BLZE holding and argued that the market was overlooking its cloud-storage business; the stock gained 210.5% from the modeled February 19 entry, versus 12.1% for SPY. Five days later, u/JediOnTilt laid out a more detailed case and said he was accumulating shares under $5. A reader buying at the February 24 modeled close of $3.76 would be up 259.2% through September 24, compared with 11.6% for SPY. A commenter challenged the post on slowing overall growth and dilution; the author replied that the faster-growing B2 Cloud unit was being masked by the older backup business. That disagreement is more informative than treating the subsequent rally as proof that every number in the post was right.

Two less obvious suppliers—and a familiar server maker

The January 2 AXT post was unusually specific. It linked back to the writer's December 29 research, connected a possible shortage of indium-phosphide substrates to optical components in AI networks, and noted export-permit and U.S.–China risks. A Reddit post published on January 2 made a similar argument and linked to its own X article; it is not independent confirmation of the supply figures. Both arguments were public before the January 5 modeled entry. The +355.3% is the stock's subsequent move, not proof that every supply-chain assertion was correct.

There were later chances to spot other parts of the buildout. On April 17, @bryzonx described a MaxLinear position bought in the low $20s and tied the stock to optical interconnects for AI data centers. His own entry was earlier than our April 20 modeled price of $31.73. A new reader buying at that close would be up 168.9% by September 24, against 8.2% for SPY. On February 26, @aleabitoreddit explained an existing Aehr Test Systems holding and the case for chip-testing equipment. Buzzberg's archive has AEHR on his “Strong Buy” list from January 24, so February was not his first mention. AEHR gained 160.3% from the modeled February 27 close, versus 11.8% for SPY.

TheValueist likewise said in his January 18 post that he had written about Lumentum and Coherent before, and linked to an optics discussion from December 2025. The January post is still a dated, explicit long view: LITE is +160.4% from the modeled entry, compared with +13.2% for SPY. It should be described as a reaffirmation, not a new discovery.

You did not have to find an obscure component maker. In a January 13 CNBC interview, Chris Grisanti said he liked Dell because data-center customers were buying huge numbers of servers and had the money to keep spending. Dell rose 351.6% from the modeled entry close through September 24; SPY rose 11.1%. A later January 23 video by Dmitry Solodin also covered Dell, but he explicitly said his technical buy signal had not yet appeared. Treating that conditional setup as an immediate buy call would misrepresent what he said.

Memory, clouds and agents: the stock still mattered

In a January 3 X post, @BlackPantherCap argued that AI memory demand could drive Micron much higher. MU is +246.2% since the modeled entry close, against 11.6% for SPY. Citrini also discussed Micron on January 1, saying his AI basket had owned it. That was a disclosed past holding rather than a fresh instruction to buy. The distinction matters even when the stock later wins.

The same January 1 neocloud post named Nebius, IREN and Cipher Mining. NBIS returned +170.7% from the modeled entry close; IREN returned +8.1% and CIFR +11.7%, versus +12.3% for SPY. Naming a sector was not the same as picking its winner.

AI agents produced a different infrastructure idea. In his February 8 newsletter, Alexander Campbell proposed a ten-stock long basket of software and infrastructure companies, including Cloudflare, on the view that agents would generate more paid API traffic. NET alone is +106.5% since the modeled entry close, against +10.6% for SPY. That is the return of one basket constituent, not the return of his whole trade. A January 27 TBPN discussion also raised Cloudflare as a possible winner from AI agents and discussed its network and Workers platform; NET is +94.1% from the modeled entry close. The episode offered a sector view, not a disclosed purchase.

The ideas that did not work

On January 2, Ray Wang argued that Oracle could win AI-cloud business on cost and relationships. He was answering a long-term question, not issuing a buy order. A buyer at our modeled entry close is down 27.5% through September 24, while SPY is up 11.6%. A January 9 Applied Digital post followed an earlier January 8 post and made a bullish case built around growth and short interest, with a $50 target. The January 9 post was tagged #IBDpartner. APLD is down 29.2% from the modeled entry close; SPY is up 10.4%.

The retrospective winners are easy to admire. The practical question is harder: whether a public argument gave a reader a reason to investigate a specific business before the stock moved, and whether the idea still held up at the price the reader could actually pay. Sandisk, AXT, Dell and Backblaze passed that return test through September 24. Oracle and Applied Digital did not. Neither the winners nor the misses tell us what these stocks will do next.