Is crypto dead, or is there hope for 2026? With Jordi Alexander and Zaheer Ebtikar

Speakers

Jordi Alexander — CIO, Selini Capital

Zaheer Ebtikar — CIO, Split Capital

Summary

Market Sentiment: Crypto sentiment is at historical lows (rated 9/10 on the "bad" scale), comparable to or worse than the post-FTX era. A specific market structure failure on October 10th caused cascading liquidations, wiping out leverage and books.
The "Boredom" Crisis: Crypto is suffering from a lack of volatility and narrative. The "Super Cycle" is currently happening in Commodities (Gold/Silver), not Crypto. Traders are migrating to where the volatility is.
The Death of the L1 Thesis: The era of launching massive valuation Layer 1 blockchains is over. The market has shifted from "Infrastructure" (selling blockspace) to "Product" (generating revenue).
VC Model Failure: The traditional crypto VC model (high valuation, 1-year vest) is broken. There is a duration mismatch between VC timelines and actual product adoption.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
XAU	LONG	Jordi Alexander Founder/CIO, Seleni Capital	"We're getting a bit of a commodity super cycle." Retail participation in China and global markets is driving massive volatility in precious metals. Crypto traders are volatility junkies. Currently, crypto is flat/down, but metals are volatile. Liquidity is flowing from Crypto -> Metals. The trade is to follow the volatility, even if it means leaving the crypto asset class temporarily (or trading metals via crypto rails). LONG. Mean reversion if the Dollar strengthens significantly or the "war premium" fades.	1:24
ETH	LONG	Jordi Alexander Founder/CIO, Seleni Capital	Jordi admits he is "a little bit more optimistic on Ethereum than I was last year." He notes the Foundation is finally "getting their act together" and posting reasonable roadmaps (e.g., AI agents). Ethereum sentiment reached maximum bearishness ("spiral to zero"). The reversal in management competence and the shift toward tangible utility (AI agents, privacy/Canton) suggests a mean-reversion trade. When sentiment is 9/10 bad, any positive structural change can trigger a rally. LONG (Contrarian Reversal). L2 fragmentation continues to cannibalize L1 revenue; "MegaETH" or Monad steals remaining thunder.	5:51
HYPE	LONG	Jordi Alexander Founder/CIO, Seleni Capital	Jordi states Hyperliquid is "probably the only thing... that's done tremendously well." Zaheer notes that trading (DEXs) is the only sector that actually feels "futuristic" and solves real problems. Hyperliquid is capturing the "Commodity Super Cycle" volume by allowing on-chain traders to trade Gold/Silver (XAU) with leverage. While the rest of crypto is boring, Hyperliquid is monetizing the volatility occurring in traditional assets. It has achieved Product-Market Fit where L1s have failed. LONG. It is the market leader in the only vertical (Perps/DEX) currently showing growth and revenue. Regulatory crackdowns on permissionless derivatives platforms.	35:35
GENERIC L1S /VC COINS	AVOID	Zaheer Ebtikar Founder/CIO, Split Capital	"We're at the tail end of the massive valuation layer one... game." Zaheer notes that ecosystem teams are mercenary and not loyal; they won't build killer apps for you. The 2021 playbook (Buy L1 token -> Wait for ecosystem fund to pump it) is dead. Blockspace is commoditized. If an L1 team isn't building the consumer product themselves, the chain will become a ghost town. AVOID. Do not buy "infrastructure" tokens that lack a native, revenue-generating "killer app." A specific L1 might secure a hit game/app by chance, causing a temporary pump.	22:27
ZRO /EIGEN	LONG	Jordi Alexander Founder/CIO, Seleni Capital	Jordi notes that altcoins are "really depressed" and back to baseline prices. He explicitly names LayerZero and EigenLayer as examples of "super big names" that are now cheap. The market has indiscriminately sold off these assets due to the October 10th liquidation cascade and general nihilism. This is a "survival bet." If you believe these protocols will exist in 3 years, the current price represents deep distress value rather than fundamental valuation. LONG (Distressed Value). Buy the "fallen angels" that have real tech but broken charts. The project could actually go to zero if they fail to pivot to a revenue-generating product model.	—