Which implies, absent a renewed tolerance for reported errors (hot money inflows now) the need to keep adjusting the reported current account surplus up ... GS is being too conservative! 12/12 https://t.co/XinegO4W7w
Original source ↗  |  February 16, 2026 at 20:22 UTC  |  Twitter - @brad_setser

Here are the actionable trade ideas extracted from the tweets:

IDEA [2] TICKER: CNY/USD DIRECTION: long THESIS: China's massive customs surplus and increasing foreign/FX assets, along with an implied need to adjust the current account surplus upwards, suggest a strong external position that could lead to appreciation pressure on the Chinese Yuan. SPEAKER: @brad_setser TIMEFRAME: medium-term

IDEA [3] TICKER: HUF (Hungarian Forint) / Hungarian Equities DIRECTION: short THESIS: Croatia's refusal to allow Hungary to use its pipeline to replace Russian oil supplies creates energy insecurity and potential economic headwinds for Hungary, which could negatively impact its currency and assets. SPEAKER: @business

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Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
CNY
LONG @brad_setser China's massive customs surplus and increasing foreign/FX assets, along with an implied need to adjust the current account surplus upwards, suggest a strong external position that could lead to appreciation pressure on the Chinese Yuan.