So 5% of GDP (~ 1% of WGDP) is a reasonable base forecast, or it should be ... of course with China (after 2022) you also need to forecast what surplus China will report as well as the underlying surplus ... 4/ https://t.co/fVPb68J5qJ
Original source ↗  |  February 16, 2026 at 20:00 UTC  |  Twitter - @brad_setser

Here are the actionable trade ideas extracted from the tweets:

IDEA 1 TICKER: N/A (South Korean shipbuilding industry) DIRECTION: long THESIS: U.S. fees on Chinese-made ships are causing a surge in ship orders for South Korean companies, indicating a positive outlook for the industry. SPEAKER: @zerohedge TIMEFRAME: medium-term

IDEA 2 TICKER: 0288.HK (WH Group) DIRECTION: long THESIS: Smithfield Foods, a subsidiary of WH Group, is building a new pork plant, suggesting increased demand or expansion plans that could benefit the parent company. SPEAKER: @BarbarianCap TIMEFRAME: medium-term

IDEA 3 T

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