Two things are simultaneously true -- a) China's surplus doesn't automatically flow into its fx reserves and then into Treasuries and Agencies b) China's large ongoing surplus (+ the increase in fx assets of the state banks) cautions against using the TIC data uncritically 1/ https://t.co/XwdNoShkOB

Original source ↗ | February 16, 2026 at 16:10 UTC | Twitter - @brad_setser

Here are the actionable trade ideas extracted from the tweets:

IDEA [4] TICKER: LHX DIRECTION: long THESIS: L3Harris secured a $400M contract to power THAAD interceptors, indicating strong demand for its defense products and potential revenue growth. SPEAKER: @FirstSquawk TIMEFRAME: medium-term

IDEA [6] TICKER: Application Software Sector (e.g., IGV, XSW) DIRECTION: short THESIS: A top-performing fund manager believes application software faces an "existential threat" from AI, suggesting a bearish outlook for the sector. SPEAKER: @burggrabenh TIMEFRAME: long-term

IDEA [7]

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