I also get a ~ 9% gap in import and export volumes in 2026 (with import volumes juiced by clear commodity stockpiling), so ~ 1.8 pp nx contribution (more if the services deficit shrank in real terms). But there is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers 5/ https://t.co/8Swd0Z0BEr

Original source ↗ | February 15, 2026 at 18:34 UTC | Twitter - @brad_setser

Here are the actionable trade ideas extracted from the provided tweets:

IDEA [6] TICKER: Aluminium, Copper, Nickel, Tin futures (or ETFs like JJN, CPER, JJM) DIRECTION: Long THESIS: Skyrocketing trading volume in base metals futures in China (up 86% MoM, 5x average) indicates strong demand or speculative interest, which is bullish for these commodities. SPEAKER: @KobeissiLetter TIMEFRAME: Short-term to medium-term

IDEA [7] TICKER: Investment banks (e.g., GS, MS), Private Equity firms (e.g., CG, BX, KKR) DIRECTION: Long THESIS: Recovery in M&A volume and improving

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