As a technical matter, China's surplus has increased because the underlying customs surplus is up -- but also because the downward adjustment to customs that China introduced in 2022 has shrunk ... it was only $30b in q4 25, after being almost $100b for a while in 24 2/ https://t.co/4Cdqe7BLNi

Original source ↗ | February 13, 2026 at 20:53 UTC | Twitter - @brad_setser

IDEA 1 TICKER: GDS, KC DIRECTION: Long THESIS: BofA Securities prefers these stocks due to strong AI demand and price hikes, indicating a positive outlook. SPEAKER: @briantycangco TIMEFRAME: Medium-term

IDEA 8 TICKER: BABA DIRECTION: Avoid THESIS: US tech aiding military could escalate US-China tensions, negatively impacting Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba due to geopolitical risk. SPEAKER: @briantycangco TIMEFRAME: Medium-term

IDEA 10 TICKER: BABA, BIDU, NIO, BYDDF DIRECTION: Avoid THESIS: Pentagon's actions (likely related to the list of firms aiding the

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