IDEA 1 TICKER: SPY (or S&P 500 index) DIRECTION: short THESIS: Historical patterns suggest a significant market drawdown (average 34%) after 115 S&P 500 stocks decline 7%+ in 8 sessions, despite the index being only 1.5% below its all-time high. SPEAKER: @michaelbatnick TIMEFRAME: medium-term

IDEA 2 TICKER: CNY, KPW, TWD (or related FX pairs/ETFs) DIRECTION: short THESIS: Despite China's massive and growing trade surplus, the yuan and other major Asian surplus country currencies show persistent weakness in broad real terms, suggesting a continued