With a goods surplus (customs) of $1.5 to $1.6 trillion -- East Asia's total external surplus would be ~ $2 trillion a year/ 2% of WGDP with a realistic Chinese income surplus. Watch for the q4 numbers out of China and Taiwan ... 5/5

Original source ↗ | February 11, 2026 at 21:52 UTC | Twitter - @brad_setser

Here are the actionable trade ideas extracted from the tweets:

IDEA [2] TICKER: AI-related stocks/ETFs (e.g., $SMCI, $NVDA, $SOXX) DIRECTION: Avoid / Short THESIS: The current AI market in early 2026 is compared to the early 2017 crypto market, suggesting potential overvaluation or a bubble that might burst. SPEAKER: @krugermacro TIMEFRAME: Medium-term

IDEA [3] TICKER: Copper (e.g., $JJC, $CPER, copper mining stocks) DIRECTION: Short THESIS: The removal of subsidies in the Chinese automotive sector has led to a significant drop in volume, indicating

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