Leading indicators (Asian export data + customs and border patrol data) suggest a surge in the US December trade deficit -- almost certainly driven by imports of chips. No way Taiwan's surplus surges by over $100b (a year) w/o some reflection on the US side ... 2/
Original source ↗  |  February 09, 2026 at 20:13 UTC  |  Twitter - @brad_setser

Here are the actionable trade ideas extracted from the tweets:

IDEA [3] TICKER: $BYDDF, $XIACF, $GELYF, $NIO, $LI, $XPEV, $ZK DIRECTION: long THESIS: Expect more support policies to boost auto sales after a correction in January/February, which should benefit these Chinese auto manufacturers. SPEAKER: @briantycangco TIMEFRAME: medium-term

IDEA [4] TICKER: US Bonds (e.g., TLT, IEF, BND) DIRECTION: short THESIS: Chinese regulators' reported guidance to limit US Treasury exposure adds pressure to bonds, alongside upcoming NFP and CPI data. SPEAKER: @ces

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