The bottom panel shows the @polymarket implied probability that "someone else" ("door #5") will be the next Fed chairman. It is rising fast now and the only uptrend, but still only 13%. (It is 100% minus the sum of the top panel). The story below explains why. @MarkHalperin https://t.co/AnG7uzJhA4 https://t.co/UXMvzQHeTO