Will have a lot more on this later (have a basketball game to watch) but the fall in the surplus in 2026 and 2027 is inconsistent with the 2026 real depreciation. It is also inconsistent with the IMF's forecast that net exports will contribute a percentage point to growth!
Original source ↗  |  February 19, 2026 at 02:21 UTC  |  Twitter - @Brad_Setser

No analysis available.