Summary

• Bob Elliott argues the US Treasury yield curve, specifically the 2/10s spread, is "too damn flat" at 50-70bps, significantly below a "normal" 100-200bps for an easing cycle.
• He identifies conflicting pressures: the short-end appears "cheap" with little further easing priced in despite political and data-driven cases for cuts, while the long-end faces future issuance pressure from the Treasury and a global overweight in developed world duration.
• The US economy shows surprising resilience with upside growth surprises and chugging earnings, yet tactical yield moves are underpricing this growth. Term premiums remain aligned with post-GFC malaise rather than current nominal growth.
• The author concludes there's a "reasonably compelling case for steepening" of the yield curve, as the current flatness is unsustainable for an "Easy Street" environment.

=== MARKET IMPLICATIONS === - Fixed Income: A steepening yield curve implies rising long-term yields relative to