| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WATCH |
Taiki Maeda
Crypto Trader / Analyst, Host of Taiki Maeda Channel |
- Hype (Hyperliquid): "Metrics have been going straight up... tokenized equity." - Pendle: "Hitting new all-time highs in Open Interest (OI)." - Aave: "Sub $2B market cap... buying back tokens." - Uniswap: "Introducing buybacks." The "K-Shaped Recovery" thesis. While the general market dumps, protocols with actual revenue, buybacks, and growing usage metrics (OI/Volume) are decoupling from "vaporware." These are the potential "Carvanas" (assets that fell 90% but have the fundamentals to recover). WATCH / ACCUMULATE. The speaker is shifting from 100% short to a mix of cash and spot accumulation in these specific names. General market beta; if ETH collapses further, these assets will likely be dragged down temporarily despite good fundamentals. | 28:57 | |
| AVOID |
Taiki Maeda
Crypto Trader / Analyst, Host of Taiki Maeda Channel |
- Ezilla: "Sold ETH to buy jet engines... complete scam." - Sharp Link: "ETH gain is negative billion... all they can talk about is staking rewards." - DeFi Dev Corp: "Launching memecoins... 'don't buy this' token." These represent the "Garbage" side of the K-shaped recovery. They are "zombie" entities (DATs) that front-loaded demand in the bull run but now represent pure supply overhang as they must sell assets to fund operations or exit scams. AVOID / SHORT. The market cannot bottom until these entities are "sacrificed" or liquidated. Irrational meme-pumps or "dead cat bounces" in low-liquidity scams. | 22:53 | |
| LONG |
Taiki Maeda
Crypto Trader / Analyst, Host of Taiki Maeda Channel |
"Coins that recover might be Bitcoin... MSTR is a good proxy to Bitcoin demand... if Sailor can't buy, who's going to buy?" (Initially bearish, but views BTC as the survivor). In a "time-based capitulation," liquidity flees risk. Bitcoin acts as the defensive asset. While MSTR weakness is bearish for BTC short-term, BTC is identified as one of the few assets that will survive the "extinction event" of altcoins. LONG (Defensive). The speaker suggests a portfolio shift to "75% cash, 25% spot" with BTC being a primary component of that spot allocation. Further liquidation from leveraged entities (like the "Chinese Whale" mentioned). | 0:50 | |
| SHORT |
Taiki Maeda
Crypto Trader / Analyst, Host of Taiki Maeda Channel |
"Tom Lee is out of money... he bought 3.5% of supply... his weekly ETH purchases dropped from $400M to $100M." Additionally, Lee received his $15M performance bonus on Jan 15th (which marked the local top), removing his incentive to pump the price further. ETH's price was artificially elevated by specific, large-scale marginal buyers (DAOs/Trusts). When these buyers stop bidding (due to cash exhaustion or achieved incentives), the bid side of the order book evaporates, forcing price convergence to a lower "fair value." SHORT. The speaker maintains a short position to capture the "trickle-down dumpomics" as altcoin yields collapse, reducing demand for ETH. A sudden "vibe shift" or irrational market exuberance; speaker notes he plans to close shorts in Q1 to pivot long. | 0:00 | |
| SHORT |
Taiki Maeda
Crypto Trader / Analyst, Host of Taiki Maeda Channel |
"MSTR to Bitcoin ratio was breaking down... Sailor is borrowing money... summing MSTR to raise cash." Regarding Bitmine: "Tom Lee is propping up Ethereum... once he is out of money ETH will converge to fair value." These equities serve as "leveraged proxies" for crypto demand. When they trade at a premium to Net Asset Value (NAV) and that premium collapses (as seen with MSTR previously), it signals a cycle top. If they are raising cash rather than buying assets, the "up-only" flywheel is broken. SHORT. These entities are the "marginal buyers" who are now tapped out. Bitcoin price spikes independently of these entities, forcing a short squeeze on the equities. | 1:11 |