US Government Heading for Shutdown Over DHS Funding

Speakers

Pete Aguilar — Chair of the House Democratic Caucus

Summary

The US government faces a partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) by Friday if a funding deal isn't reached.
The core conflict is ideological: Democrats are willing to fund FEMA, TSA, and CISA but refuse to vote for "status quo" funding for ICE and CBP, citing concerns over "terrorizing communities."
Democrats are using procedural votes to voice disapproval of recent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, highlighting the inflationary cost to American households, though this is largely symbolic.

Trade Ideas

Ticker	Direction	Speaker	Thesis	Time
JETS /AAL /LUV	AVOID	Pete Aguilar Chair of the House Democratic Caucus	"If my Republican colleagues choose to shut down Homeland Security... They're choosing air traffic control disruption." While Aguilar admits TSA agents wouldn't miss a paycheck until March, the political rhetoric and threat of a shutdown creates immediate "headline risk" for the travel sector. Historically, DHS shutdowns lead to "blue flu" (agents calling in sick), causing long lines and flight delays. This uncertainty dampens short-term booking demand. AVOID. The sector faces operational headwinds and negative sentiment until the funding resolution is signed. A last-minute deal (CR) removes the threat immediately, causing a relief rally.	—
GEO /CXW	WATCH	Pete Aguilar Chair of the House Democratic Caucus	"I am not going to offer my vote, for ICE and CBP to continue the status quo... We have huge concerns about their leadership... and about their continuous, terrorizing of communities." Private prison operators (GEO Group, CoreCivic) rely heavily on federal contracts with ICE for detention centers. The Democrats are explicitly targeting the $75 billion ICE budget. While Republicans likely have the leverage to protect this funding eventually, the current standoff introduces binary legislative risk to these specific tickers. WATCH. Volatility will be high. If a Continuing Resolution (CR) passes without restrictive language on ICE, these are a buy; if Democrats force concessions/cuts, they drop. Republicans hold the House and may force the funding through regardless of Democratic opposition.	—
PANW /CRWD /NET	LONG	Pete Aguilar Chair of the House Democratic Caucus	Aguilar lists "CISA, cybersecurity" alongside the Coast Guard and Secret Service as agencies that "should be funded through the continuation... just like other law enforcement agencies." Even in a highly partisan dispute where Democrats are trying to defund border enforcement (ICE), they explicitly carve out Cybersecurity (CISA) as essential/protected. This reinforces the thesis that cyber spending is "non-discretionary" government spending, immune to even the most severe budget cuts or political gridlock. LONG. Bipartisan support for cyber funding provides a safety net for government contracts in this sector. A total government shutdown (unlikely) would temporarily pause new contract awards.	—