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Feb 02
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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The yield curve has only modestly steepened, and 2yr rates have hardly moved, despite the increasing clarity of easy policy ahead from a politically influenced Fed. Politically motivated easy policy will likely anchor short-term rates, while longer-term rates could rise due to expectations of growth and potential inflation fueled by easy money. Position for a steeper yield curve, benefiting from the divergence between suppressed short-term rates and potentially rising longer-term rates in a pro-growth, easy-money environment. Economic growth could falter, leading to a flattening or inversion, or the Fed could implement unexpected tightening at the short end. |
Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy
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