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Feb 12
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"The latest jobs report and revisions suggest that may be starting to pick up, with private payrolls posting the best numbers in more than year." "gently pushes the odds in favor of incomes rising toward spending ahead." "‘26 will bring a more positive environment." Small-cap companies are often more domestically focused and highly sensitive to the health of the US economy and its labor market. A strengthening US economy, driven by job growth and rising incomes, provides a strong tailwind for small-cap earnings and valuations. LONG Small-Cap US Equities (e.g., IWM ETF for Russell 2000) on the back of an improving domestic economic outlook and labor market strength. Economic recovery falters; higher interest rates disproportionately impact smaller, often more leveraged, companies; broader market downturn. |
Nonconsensus
Will a Pickup in Jobs Keep Spending Going?
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