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Feb 17
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"The terminally online screen generation inherently just wants to gamble... Everyone's dopamine receptors are fried... If they can't get the edge in stock market, they'll go to crypto. If they can't get the edge in crypto, they'll go to sports betting." The demand for speculation is inelastic and growing generationally. "Shorting degeneracy" is a losing bet. Therefore, the platforms that facilitate this risk-taking (Robinhood, Coinbase, Sports Betting apps) will see perpetual volume growth regardless of asset quality. LONG the "Casinos" of the digital economy. Regulatory crackdowns on retail speculation or gambling addiction measures. |
Thread Guy
The Logan Paul Situation is INSANE..
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Feb 16
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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The speaker states, "If we want to be bleeding edge on what's happening in AI and speculative entertainment speculative finance... we have to spend an increasingly large amount of time with said things." He concludes, "I want to fully commit to the flow." The "Flow" represents the concentration of liquidity, attention, and alpha in the fastest-moving sectors (specifically identified as AI and Crypto/Speculative Entertainment). To "commit" to the flow is to be directionally long these high-beta asset classes. The speaker argues that "tourists" (partial participants) will fail, while those who "submit" to the speed of these markets will be rewarded. LONG the most speculative, high-attention sectors (AI and Crypto) as the speaker commits to "riding" the volatility. "AI psychosis," mental burnout, and the potential for the "flow" to "gently return you to pedestrian life" (total loss of capital) if habits cannot be maintained. |
Thread Guy
Why Being Chronically Online Is Now a Cheat C...
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Feb 14
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LONG
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Kyle Grieve
Host, The Investor's Podcast / Millennial Investing
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"You need to keep your savings in appreciating assets... stocks... bonds, real estate, commodities, private businesses, cryptocurrencies." To combat the "silent tax" of inflation, investors must own assets that are "tied to real economic activity" or possess scarcity. Diversify into hard and productive assets to maintain and grow purchasing power. Asset bubbles, high interest rates depressing asset prices, or specific sector risks. |
We Study Billionaires
Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor w/ Kyl...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Jennifer Ilq
President, ICE Futures US
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ICE is launching futures on the CoinDesk 5 and CoinDesk 20 indices. ProShares and Grayscale have products tied to these indices. Institutions prefer diversified exposure (similar to MSCI Emerging Markets) over single-stock picking. The creation of futures on these indices allows institutions to hedge broad crypto exposure, facilitating the creation of larger, more liquid ETFs (like the mentioned ProShares/Grayscale products). LONG the index products (or proxies like BITW/Grayscale funds) as they become the default vehicle for passive institutional allocation. Correlation breakdown among index components. |
CoinDesk
ICE Goes Live With Futures Tied to CoinDesk I...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Nicholas Peach
Head of APAC iShares, BlackRock
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BlackRock states that a 1% portfolio allocation across Asia would unlock nearly $2 trillion in new capital. Their US Bitcoin ETF has already surged to $53B, driven significantly by Asian demand. The infrastructure for this capital to move is now live (ETFs). As Asian wealth managers seek diversification and yield, the "tiny move" of 1% is a mathematical inevitability that creates immense buy-side pressure on the underlying asset. LONG Bitcoin and its proxies (IBIT) as the primary beneficiaries of this capital wall. Regulatory crackdowns in Asia or a slowdown in ETF adoption rates. |
CoinDesk
BlackRock: 1% of Asian Wealth Could Trigger $...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Richard Teng
Co-CEO, Binance
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Despite retail volatility and liquidation events, institutions added 43,000 BTC to portfolios in January. Total institutional holding is ~1.3M BTC. The "crash" narrative is driven by retail panic and leverage flushes (liquidations), but the "smart money" (institutions) is buying the dip. This divergence usually signals a local bottom. LONG Bitcoin following institutional flows. Regulatory crackdowns or a broader macro liquidity freeze strengthening the USD. |
Bloomberg Markets
China's Zhipu Jolts AI Race as 'Scare Trade' ...
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Feb 11
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AVOID
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Joe Terranova
Investment Committee Member
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"What's troubling the market today... is a little bit of a rollover in Crypto... and Software... looks like Software is kind of rolling over a little bit." The immediate post-jobs report reaction is hitting high-duration, high-beta assets hardest. The "momentum" factor is shifting away from these speculative sectors toward quality/value. AVOID. Short-term weakness is visible in these specific momentum pockets. A sudden drop in yields could reignite the bid for high-duration tech and crypto assets. |
CNBC
Here's how to trade around the hot jobs repor...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Mike Belshe
CEO and Co-founder of BitGo
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"This is like our fifth, you know, crypto crash... There's a lot of deleveraging that's happening, so then the market can continue to grow." The speaker views the current crash not as a fundamental failure, but as a cyclical "flush" of leverage. Historical patterns suggest that after these deleveraging events, the asset class recovers and expands as the "thesis" remains intact. LONG. Continued regulatory hostility or a failure of the asset class to recover post-deleveraging. |
CNBC
BitGo CEO Mike Belshe: The latest bitcoin dow...
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Feb 06
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LONG
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Tom Lee
Fundstrat / Chairman of Bitmain (per transcript)
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Ethereum has suffered a "waterfall decline" (down 40% in 10 days), and sentiment is at rock bottom, comparable to the FTX crash in November 2022. Lee argues this is a capitulation bottom. Historically, Ethereum has experienced seven drawdowns of 60% or more in the last eight years; every single one resulted in a "V-shaped recovery" (recovering as quickly as it fell). Furthermore, the "utility" of the network is expanding regardless of price, as Wall Street moves financial infrastructure (tokenization) onto Ethereum. Active Ethereum addresses are up 117% year-over-year (parabolic rise in the last 3 months). Major firms like UBS, Standard Chartered, and Fidelity are tokenizing products specifically on Ethereum. Continued volatility or a failure of the historical V-shape pattern to materialize. |
CNBC
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Crypto looks like it is ...
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