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Feb 15
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AVOID
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Paul Krugman
Nobel Prize-winning Economist, Distinguished Professor, Publisher of the Paul Krugman Substack
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Krugman highlights that US net migration may have turned negative. He cites the "accelerator principle," stating that investment demand depends on the *growth* of the population. "If the working age population is shrinking then you don't need a lot more office buildings." A stagnating or shrinking workforce destroys the fundamental demand for new physical space (offices/housing). Without population growth, the vacancy rates in commercial real estate cannot be absorbed. AVOID Commercial Real Estate and Office REITs. A sudden reversal in immigration policy or a productivity boom that increases space requirements per worker. |
Monetary Matters
“A Huge Problem for Everybody” | Paul Krugman...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Mark Rayfield
CEO, Saint-Gobain North America
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There is a distinct split in the office market. "A buildings are always full and the C buildings aren't." To compete, landlords must renovate Class B/C buildings into Class A environments. This isn't just about coffee machines; it requires upgrading "building science" elements like acoustics (sound-dampening walls/ceilings) and electrochromatic glass (natural light without glare/heat) to improve worker productivity and comfort. Data suggests better acoustics lead to less stress and absenteeism in schools and offices, driving demand for high-performance materials. Owners "flipping" buildings may cut corners on long-term quality upgrades. |
CNBC
Property Play: Saint-Gobain North America's c...
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