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Jan 30
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SHORT
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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"If you are buying the dip here... you are in the same boat as everyone else betting that investors broadly will keep bidding up everything that is not nailed down to the floor. To me it looks like something to fade rather than follow." The market is driven by broad-based speculation, not fundamentals, making it highly vulnerable to shocks. Fading the dip means betting against this unsustainable speculative momentum. Short broad risky assets (e.g., through global equity or commodity ETFs) or avoid buying the dip, anticipating a potential reversal of the speculative rally due to its unsustainable nature. The "BTFD" crowd could muster another round of buying, or new positive catalysts could emerge, extending the speculative rally further than anticipated. |
Nonconsensus
Speculative Mania Speedbumps
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