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Feb 14
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SHORT
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chumba
Substack author, The Cookie Chumbles
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"Odds of downside actualizing are elevated" for equities, driven by risks to employment flows (401k buying), Fed liquidity, and AI-driven labor displacement. "Retail participation in stocks all time highs. Cash levels all time lows." The combination of macro headwinds (Fed tightening, de-globalization), structural shifts (AI's impact on employment and corporate FCF), and extreme bullish sentiment creates a high probability of a broad market correction or bear market. 3. |
The Cookie Chumbles
Doomer or Boomer
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Joe Terranova
Senior Managing Director, Virtus Investment Partners
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Bond market volatility is remarkably calm/low despite the Fed signaling "patience" on cuts. Equity markets often struggle not with high rates, but with *volatile* rates. Stability in the bond market allows for predictable cost of capital and credit availability, which supports high equity valuations. Stay Long equities as long as the bond market remains non-volatile. A sudden spike in yields (bond vol) caused by an inflation surprise. |
CNBC
Here's how to trade the surge in stocks
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Feb 02
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LONG
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Bob Elliott
Substack author, Nonconsensus
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Stocks have traded flat despite strong economic stats and good earnings, and the Fed is expected to deliver easy policies to juice the economy. Metals, in contrast, have already surged. The "Easy Street" policy momentum and strong fundamentals are underpriced in equities compared to other financial assets where this is already discounted. Long broad equities to capitalize on the expected flow of easy policy and robust economic performance that is not yet fully reflected in stock prices. Economic data could unexpectedly weaken, corporate earnings could disappoint, or the Fed could surprise with a more hawkish stance than anticipated. |
Nonconsensus
Underpricing Easy Street Policy
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