Semis will dump and software will pump

u/Character_Art_8477 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · June 20, 2026 at 13:36 · ⬆ 21 pts · 💬 72 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Summary

  • The author predicts a rotation from semiconductors to software, driven by anticipated capex cuts by software companies to protect margins, leading to semis dumping and software pumping.
  • They specifically bet heavily on ServiceNow (NOW), avoiding Microsoft (MSFT) and Palantir (PLTR) due to size constraints and high valuations respectively.
  • The thesis is a macro, non-quantitative opinion with no detailed financial analysis, relying on a narrative of “law of large numbers” and margin optimization.

Quality assessment: Speculation / noise. The post lacks data, historical context, or concrete catalysts; it’s a forward-looking opinion based on a simplistic cause-effect chain.

Score 21
Comments 72
Upvote % 60%
▶ Full Post Text
Ideas
u/Character_Art_8477 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Author believes software companies will soon reduce capex, improving margins and revenue growth visibility, while semis lose demand. NOW is positioned as a high-growth software platform with “best risk-adjusted returns” vs. MSFT (too large) and PLTR (too expensive). Bet on a near-term rotation out of semis into software, with NOW as the preferred vehicle. Capex cuts may not materialize until 2028 (per community comment); NOW is heavily talked up and could be overbought; the thesis lacks any valuation or earnings support.
NOW MED
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This Reddit post, published June 20, 2026, features u/Character_Art_8477 discussing NOW. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Character_Art_8477  · Tickers: NOW